On December 11th at 3:00 AM, the dust settled—The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, bringing the federal funds rate down to the 3.50%-3.75% range. This is the third rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 75 basis points.

From the signals revealed by the dot plot, there may still be another 25 basis point "moderate adjustment" in 2026 and 2027. But after this meeting, the atmosphere has become a bit subtle.

The journalist Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Fed mouthpiece," pointed out that internally, officials are actually arguing quite fiercely—Is inflation more stubborn, or is the employment market more concerning? The disagreement is significant, so subsequent rate cuts might slow down.

Jerome Powell's remarks are also quite interesting: the labor market is cooling, but inflation remains stubborn, and risks might even continue to rise. September data showed a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with a noticeable slowdown in new jobs, and hiring demand isn't as robust as before.

Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Haigh directly poured cold water on the situation: "Preemptive rate cuts" are already at their limit. Her logic is simple—unless employment data really crashes, there's no reason to continue cutting rates.

The market's reaction, however, has been quite dramatic. When Powell spoke, BTC briefly surged to $94,000, but the excitement didn't last long, and it has now fallen back to around $91,918.

Honestly, rate cuts are never just a simple numbers game. They involve chain reactions of economic expectations, capital flows, and risk appetite. For the crypto market, liquidity easing is usually a good thing, but if rate cuts are hiding fears of an economic recession, that's another story. Currently, the Fed itself isn't even sure what to do next, so investors need to be cautious in dealing with this uncertainty.