Did the rate cut turn into a short-selling signal? Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. We thought the market would rebound once the dust settled. However, Powell's remarks were more dovish than anticipated, and the combination of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion to release liquidity should have been bullish.



But I still chose to short ETH for three reasons. First, the 25 basis point rate cut was already priced in by the market, and such expected positive news often presents the best exit point. Second, more importantly, the outlook for rate cuts in 2026 has shifted from two adjustments to just one, and the market has yet to fully digest this change. The third point is what concerns me most—there was a rare disagreement within the Federal Reserve, which is uncommon in past decisions. Plus, with the new chair nomination next month, policy uncertainty has sharply increased.

Staying up late to monitor the market was worth it; my short positions yielded good profits, and I woke up with the gains secured. The focus now shifts to January’s market; the liquidity from the Fed's balance sheet expansion will eventually enter the market. Prepare your ammunition, as this could be a better window for strategic positioning.
ETH6.87%
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RektRecoveryvip
· 2025-12-14 09:02
ngl the fed pivot theater always hits different when you actually read between the powell lines... everyone's celebrating the cut but the 2026 dot plot revision is the real exploit pattern nobody's pricing in yet. saw this one coming from a mile away tbh
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DaoDevelopervip
· 2025-12-14 05:15
The logic behind price in is fine, but the key is the fed dissent... governance fragmentation usually indicates a spike in policy uncertainty. During the transition period of the new chair, liquidity will be quite choppy, so this window is indeed worth watching. However, the question is—whether the fed expansion can ultimately trickle down to the crypto market, or will it be absorbed by traditional finance.
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On-ChainDivervip
· 2025-12-13 11:36
Damn it, the drop in price actually signals a sell-off. I've seen this trick too many times.
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StakeOrRegretvip
· 2025-12-11 09:56
The drop in shoes is actually the perfect time to sell off. This logic is pretty slick; the market just loves to repeatedly harvest the chives of people like this.
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ForkInTheRoadvip
· 2025-12-11 09:55
The best time to sell is actually when the dust settles. I've heard this logic too many times. The problem is, how many people can hit the precise timing? Powell's recent approach is indeed somewhat peculiar in its moderation, but the signal of changing from twice to once in 2026 is really easy to overlook. The market is still dreaming.
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PaperHandSistervip
· 2025-12-11 09:49
The drop in price is actually the best point to unload. I have to admit, I was fooled by this logic. I should have seen through the market's trick earlier.
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SignatureCollectorvip
· 2025-12-11 09:43
The drop in the shoes is actually a selling signal. I need to think more about this logic... However, the rate cut expectation being price-in has indeed been a common topic, and it seems the market is still the same old story.
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RektCoastervip
· 2025-12-11 09:40
The drop in the shoes turns out to be the best point to unload, there's nothing wrong with that statement. I've seen through this set long ago; the expected positive news should be sold off. --- Only one rate cut in 2026? This is the real killer move; market reactions are indeed lagging. --- Internal disagreements + a new chairman taking office, definitely an uncertainty premium. Those still daring to take the plunge are really bold. --- Feeling the thrill of profit in the early hours🔥, cashing out at dawn—that's what professionalism looks like. --- Expanding the balance sheet to increase liquidity will come sooner or later, but rushing in now just makes you the bagholder; better to wait and see. --- The Federal Reserve is now in internal conflict; Powell’s moderate rhetoric can’t fool anyone. --- Prices are still rising despite being priced in—it's just a relay race game, someone has to take the fall. --- The rate cut expectation changed from two to one; market reactions can’t keep up with this detail, so it’s a perfect hit.
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MetaverseVagrantvip
· 2025-12-11 09:38
Amazing, the drop of the shoe turned out to be a selling opportunity. I am convinced by this logic.
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