#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Mid-December BTC Market Review and Trading Recommendations

【Market Logic Breakdown】

From a macro perspective, although the Federal Reserve has been cutting rates on schedule, the dovish stance with hawkish hints has left the market a bit confused. Additionally, the Bank of Japan signaling a hawkish rate hike has put significant pressure on risk assets. BTC surged past 94,000+ after rate cut expectations materialized but then pulled back, indicating that the 93,000-94,000 resistance zone is quite solid, repeatedly testing the bulls' ceiling.

On the technical side, the daily chart has formed a top-diverging pattern, and the 4-hour MACD has also given a death cross, suggesting short-term bullish momentum is nearly exhausted. Conversely, in the 88,000-89,000 range, multiple indicators resonate here, making it a solid core support level.

From a capital flow perspective, it's even more interesting—the ETF fund inflow has slowed significantly, spot CVD continues to stay negative, with over 85% of long positions liquidated, indicating that bullish stop-loss pressure hasn't been fully released.

【Short-term Outlook】

The short-term trend is expected to be oscillating and biased towards downside. The 90,000-93,000 range is our key focus for volatility. Until clear breakout signals appear, the main approach should be to test support via pullbacks, as a one-sided trend is unlikely to form.

【Trading Strategy】

For short positions: Enter at 92,500-93,000, with a stop-loss at 93,500 (if broken through the strong resistance, switch to a long position). The short-term target points to 91,000 (yesterday's low). If broken, look at the 90,000 level.

For long positions: Only consider entering after support stabilizes between 90,000-89,000, with a stop-loss below 88,500. Target between 91,500-92,000. Take profits when reached, avoid stubborn holds.

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