#BTCMarketAnalysis #HasTheMarketDipped?

Bitcoin price is under renewed pressure.

BTC has fallen by approximately 4% in the last 24 hours and almost 10% in the last 30 days, with selling pressure increasing across the cryptocurrency market. While traders debate whether a rebound or a new decline is coming, a critical long-term level has now emerged: how Bitcoin will close the year could be decisive.

Both price structure and cycle analyses converge in the same area. If Bitcoin cannot hold this critical support before the end of the year, the downside risks will increase significantly.

Bitcoin is currently trading quite close to the 2-Year Simple Moving Average, which is around $82,800. This level is not just a support point, but one of Bitcoin's most important long-term cycle indicators.

It is calculated using daily closing prices, but for cycle analysis, it is interpreted based on monthly closing prices. Therefore, it's not the momentary price fluctuations that matter, but where Bitcoin closes at the end of the month.

The last time Bitcoin's price fell below this SMA line was in mid-2022, after which it lost an additional 51% before rebounding. Therefore, December 31st is crucial.

The December closing marks the market locking in a full month's worth of data. This closing is used by analysts as an official signal to understand whether Bitcoin is continuing its long-term trend or heading towards deeper structural weakness.

Historically, monthly closings have often signaled prolonged bear market periods. Defending this line or breaking above it indicates that the cycle is still ongoing. Once the month closes, there's usually no second chance.

Analysts who track long-term Bitcoin cycles also point out that this level is a structural "red line." The key point here is very clear: if Bitcoin cannot remain in this region until the end of the month, it will have given a definitive bearish signal.

The problem isn't just technical. On-chain data reveals deeper underlying stress.

Long-term investors increased their selling throughout December. According to long-term investors' net position change data, net outflows, which were approximately 116,000 BTC at the beginning of the month, reached almost 269,000 BTC by December 15th.

This situation shows a jump of over 130% in selling pressure in just two weeks.

Short-term investors usually only sell with strong determination or to reduce risk. Continued selling increases downward pressure and makes it difficult to protect critical support levels.

Long-term investors, when selling during periods of market weakness, have no margin for error at critical support levels like the 2-year SMA.

Is Bitcoin Price Going Up or Down? Critical Levels

If Bitcoin cannot hold the $82,800-$81,100 region until the December close, the downside risks are rapidly increasing.

If a downward break from this region is confirmed, the next major target on the chart will be the $73,300 level, approximately 15% lower.

Bitcoin needs to regain $88,200 for the current pressure to ease. For a buying trend to re-emerge and for momentum to shift entirely in favor of the bulls, the price must rise above at least $94,500.

Until then, Bitcoin appears to be caught between long-term cycle support and increasing selling pressure.