#加密市场小幅回暖 Christmas market is approaching, and the price target for Bitcoin in December has become the focus. Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the range of 84,000 to 94,000 USD for a month, and the current price is hovering around 90,000 USD.

Bullish analysts like AlphaBTC and Captain Faibik are expecting a "Santa Claus rally", believing that the correction is over and prices may soon break through and surge towards the $98,000 to $100,000 range.
Korinek_Trades is based on the Elliott Wave Theory, predicting that the price is expected to reach a new high of $150,000. Ignas pointed out that the massive options expiration on December 26 may push the price towards $96,000.
However, the bearish voices cannot be ignored either. Maksim Balashevich, the founder of Santiment, believes that based on social media sentiment analysis, the market has not yet shown enough "panic" sentiment to confirm a bottom, and Bitcoin still has the possibility of falling to $75,000. CryptoOnchain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, warns that due to a $1.4 billion BTC inflow at the bn exchange, the price may pull back to the demand zone between $70,000 and $72,000. Analysts like Killa and Doctor Profit predict that after several months of turbulence, the market may start the next round of deep declines in the first quarter of 2026, targeting $60,000.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer believes that the four-year cycle is not over, and the bear market may last until 2026, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
From on-chain data, analyst Murphy pointed out that a large amount of chips has accumulated in the range of $80,000 to $90,000, while the $70,000 to $80,000 range is a liquidity vacuum and may become a strong support.
The festive atmosphere always brings some special "magic". Will the much-anticipated Santa Claus Rally arrive on time?
The "Santa Rally" in the crypto market originates from the year-end effect in traditional stock markets: holiday optimism + institutional window dressing + thin liquidity allows small funds to push up prices. However, Bitcoin and crypto assets are more volatile, and their performance is highly dependent on the larger cycles (bull and bear markets).
Based on historical data from the past 10-11 years, Bitcoin's average increase in December is about 8.25%, with the total market capitalization averaging +13.16%. Years with positive returns are in the majority, but not every year sees a rise. In the past 11 years, during the week before Christmas (December 19-25), Bitcoin has risen 8 times, with the largest increase being 13.19% in 2016. In the week after Christmas, it has risen 6-9 times, but the overall market is stronger (82% positive return).
In a bull market, the probability of a Christmas rally is high and the magnitude is large; in a bear market or adjustment period, it is easy to go sideways or even decline slightly. The average magnitude of the Christmas rally is only 1-2%, far less than the potential of 9% for the entire month of December. Thin liquidity is a double-edged sword - it can lead to rapid surges, but also to flash crashes.
In the crypto world during Christmas, it often acts as a magnifying glass for emotions: when optimistic, everyone shouts bull, and when fearful, everyone shouts bottom. But history tells us that a price surge is not a holiday benefit, but a continuation of a larger trend. This year, it seems that Santa may be late or only bring small gifts—let's prioritize rationality and avoid going all in chasing the rise.
What do you think about this year's Christmas? Will it be a quiet sideways movement or a surprising rebound? Let's talk about your positions and predictions in the comments! Happy holidays, and good risk management is the greatest gift.