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It's Friday. Friends who haven't joined the discussion group yet can come in directly. Here is real-time market exchange.
First, let's talk about the overall pattern of the market. The rebound strength is indeed limited, and there is still room for further decline. From the weekly chart, the market is still in a consolidation phase, with no signs of a true breakout. The key is to find where the decline will stop, but currently market sentiment remains cautious, and a quiet period may follow.
From the liquidation map (daily chart), BTC and SOL are generally in a bullish trend with similar density levels, with SOL showing the strongest dense movement, indicating stronger short-term bullish momentum; ETH, on the other hand, is dominated by bears and shows dense bearish activity. This suggests that short-term bullish and bearish opinions are increasingly divided, and there is a risk of liquidation that should be watched carefully.
Looking at how institutional spot ETF funds are moving: BTC has a net outflow of $206 million, ETH a net outflow of $51.5 million, while SOL has a net inflow of $13.6 million. Based on holdings, institutions are more optimistic about SOL in the short term but are reducing their holdings of BTC and ETH. This is one of the reasons for the limited upward momentum of the overall market.
Tonight, US non-farm payroll data will be released, which may stir the market to some extent. During the day, volatility is expected to be limited. BTC is expected to trade in the range of 89,000-92,500, ETH in 3,030-3,180, with SOL performing relatively stronger, in the range of 135-143, but it will still be dragged down by the overall market.
Trading ideas:
For BTC, a rebound to 89,000 or a pullback to 89,000 is a good entry point for long positions, with additional positions at 89,000, and partial profit-taking at 92,500. Conversely, for short positions, consider shorting at 92,500 or on a rebound to 93,500, with partial profit-taking at 89,500.
For ETH, buy on dips at 3,070 or a pullback to 3,000, add positions at 3,000, and take profit at 3,160. For shorting, consider shorting at 3,160 or on a rebound to 3,220, add positions at 3,220, and take profit at 3,050.
SOL is strong in the short term, buy on dips at 137 or a pullback to 133, add positions at 133, and take profit at 142. For shorting, consider shorting at 143 or on a rally to 146, add positions at 146, and take profit at 138.
A reminder: set your stop-loss based on your actual liquidation price and maximum tolerable loss. Don't be greedy; take profits when you can. Better to take small losses than to hold through a hard drop. If your direction is correct, hold on to your positions.