According to the latest research by a major financial institution, the December non-farm employment data released on January 9th is not expected to cause any shocks to the market's view of Federal Reserve policy. The institution forecasts non-farm employment growth of about 70,000 jobs, which is generally in line with market expectations.

A key observation is that even if the data shows slight fluctuations, it is unlikely to change the current market pricing logic. Investors are currently focused on a clear path — the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year, by 25 basis points each time, with the first cut most likely to start in late April. Unless the non-farm data shows "quite dramatic" abnormal fluctuations, this schedule is unlikely to change.

From a stock market perspective, an employment increase of 70,000 to 100,000 is considered the most ideal outcome. Why? Because it reflects that the economy is still expanding, without reigniting inflation expectations, and can support the interest rate cut cycle as scheduled. In other words, such data can confirm that the economy is slowing down steadily rather than suddenly stalling.

In contrast, if employment data falls below 50,000, the situation changes. This would be interpreted as a sign that economic growth is under pressure, potentially triggering market concerns about recession risks, and investors would become more cautious.

Overall, the market has set a reasonable range for non-farm payroll performance. As long as extreme situations do not occur, the Federal Reserve's easing policy trajectory is essentially a done deal.