Tonight at 21:30, the first US non-farm payroll data of 2026 will be released. The market expects an increase of 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.5%. Why does this data matter so much to the crypto market? Simply put, it directly influences the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction.

The logic is clear: if the data is weak, economic growth slows down, and expectations for rate cuts will rise, which usually boosts risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Conversely, strong employment data often indicates that the economy remains resilient, and the timetable for rate cuts may be delayed. In the short term, digital assets could face some correction pressure.

Remember the epic liquidation in mid-October last year? One of the triggers was the non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which sparked concerns about policy tightening. But here’s an important point: a single data fluctuation only affects the price rhythm and cannot change the long-term trend. Those seemingly shocking short-term declines often turn into buying opportunities later.

My advice for retail investors is straightforward: do not frequently adjust spot holdings, especially for mainstream coins like BTC and ETH. After the data is released, first observe the market reaction, let emotions and liquidity fully digest the information before making decisions. Most importantly, never gamble tonight’s market with high leverage. Volatility will inevitably be amplified, and risks will multiply.

Are you choosing to observe and wait, or looking for opportunities to position? This decision varies from person to person, but in any case, staying calm is the key to winning.