The probability of a "moderate candidate" increases amid rising political factors

Against the backdrop of the US election cycle and intensified bipartisan rivalry, the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is no longer just a professional matter but also a political balancing act. Extreme hawks may trigger issues related to employment and debt, while extreme doves could be accused of tolerating inflation. Therefore, a "moderate candidate" is more likely to gain consensus. Such candidates typically have a complete resume, relatively moderate stances, emphasizing long-term anti-inflation goals while also recognizing the need for flexible operations during special phases. For the market, this means policies are less likely to change abruptly but will retain "tactical space." On the trading front, fluctuations in macro assets may be driven more by expectations than policy itself, increasing short-term trading difficulty and boosting the value of medium- to long-term allocations. #美联储主席人选预测