Q4 Earnings Season: Five ETFs Positioned for Revenue Growth

As the fourth quarter earnings cycle moves into full swing, the investment landscape is shifting from macro concerns toward corporate performance. Market participants are increasingly redirecting their attention from Federal Reserve decisions and geopolitical developments to actual bottom-line results. What’s particularly noteworthy: corporate earnings guidance has strengthened significantly, with forward estimates climbing steadily quarter over quarter. While net income figures typically dominate headlines during earnings season, the growth story told by revenue—or “top-line” performance—often provides a clearer window into a company’s fundamental operational health. According to recent Zacks Investment Research analysis, total S&P 500 earnings for Q4 are expected to rise 7.9% year-over-year, supported by 8.2% higher revenues.

The Case for Tracking Revenue Growth This Quarter

Revenue expansion matters more than many investors realize. Here’s why: only two of the 16 S&P 500 sectors are anticipated to experience revenue declines in Q4, while seven are expected to see earnings contraction. This divergence highlights a crucial insight—net income can be artificially enhanced through cost-cutting initiatives and accounting adjustments that don’t necessarily reflect underlying business strength. Revenue, by contrast, is far harder to manipulate. It serves as a purer measure of a company’s ability to generate actual sales in the marketplace. When a sector shows strong revenue growth, it typically signals genuine market demand and expanding customer demand, not just financial engineering.

Construction: Building Momentum Into Q4

The construction sector is positioned to deliver particularly impressive revenue growth, with projections of 17.8% expansion in Q4 following only 1.5% growth in the previous quarter. This acceleration reflects underlying strength in the U.S. infrastructure market. Historical data supports this optimism: between 2020 and 2024, the construction industry achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3%. Forecasts suggest the sector likely expanded roughly 5.6% on an annual basis in 2025, reaching approximately $1.27 trillion in total market value.

Recommended ETF: Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE)

Technology: Riding the Wave of Sector Fundamentals

The technology sector continues to benefit from improving economic conditions and strengthening industry-specific tailwinds. Revenue growth acceleration is evident in the data: Q4 is expected to deliver 16.3% revenue expansion, up from 15.5% recorded in Q3. This sustained momentum reflects both broader economic recovery and specific strength within technology subsectors driven by enterprise spending and innovation cycles.

Recommended ETF: SPDR Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

Aerospace & Defense: Capitalizing on Structural Demand

The aerospace and defense sector is projected to post 12% revenue growth in the current reporting cycle, a moderation from Q3’s 14.6% pace but still demonstrating substantial expansion. The sector’s tailwinds remain intact: geopolitical tensions continue to support defense spending, while the rapidly expanding space industry—from satellite communications to commercial space ventures—creates incremental revenue opportunities that weren’t present a decade ago.

Recommended ETF: iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)

Financials: Benefiting From Rate Environment and Capital Markets Activity

The financial services sector is poised for 9.4% revenue growth in Q4, building on 8.4% expansion in Q3. Multiple factors support this trajectory: elevated investment banking activity, robust trading volumes, and a favorable interest rate backdrop continue to drive fee income. Additionally, the steepening of the yield curve and sustained loan demand from businesses provide structural support for revenue growth in this sector.

Recommended ETF: Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH)

Utilities: From Defensive Play to Growth Driver

Utilities are expected to log 9.4% revenue growth in Q4 following 7.6% uptick in Q3—a surprising development for a sector traditionally viewed as a defensive, slow-growth corner of the market. The transformation stems from an unexpected catalyst: accelerating AI-driven data center construction is creating unprecedented demand for electricity. This secular shift has elevated utilities from their historical role as yield-producing, defensive holdings into genuine growth opportunities, redefining the sector’s risk-return profile.

Recommended ETF: State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)

Strategic Takeaway

Q4’s earnings season underscores an important investment principle: revenue growth reveals the true health of a business in ways that bottom-line profits sometimes obscure. These five sectors—construction, technology, aerospace, financials, and utilities—each demonstrate the revenue momentum likely to attract investor attention as earnings reports roll in. The corresponding ETFs provide efficient vehicles for gaining targeted exposure to these growth narratives without picking individual stocks.