CICC: Recommend grasping the full industry chain transformation brought by space-based photovoltaics and continuously focusing on the intensive catalysis of manufacturing industry implementation

CICC points out that under the backdrop of booming commercial spaceflight, space photovoltaics, as the core direction for upgrading power systems, is moving toward a new stage of technological advancement and industrialization delivery driven by large-scale constellation networking. As China’s low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations enter a period of dense deployment, with continuous increases in single-satellite power and the promotion of new application scenarios such as space computing power, it is recommended to seize the full industry chain transformation brought by space photovoltaics and to continue monitoring the intensive catalysis at the manufacturing end.

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CICC | Space Photovoltaics: The Rising Satellite Energy Market

CICC Research

Under the background of thriving commercial spaceflight, space photovoltaics, as the core direction for upgrading power systems, is advancing toward a new stage of technological route upgrades and industrialization delivery driven by large-scale constellation networking. As China’s low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations enter a period of dense deployment, with continuous growth in single-satellite power and the promotion of new application scenarios such as space computing power, we recommend grasping the full industry chain transformation brought by space photovoltaics and maintaining focus on the intensive catalysis at the manufacturing industry end.

Summary

The space economy has become a core track in technological competition, with photovoltaics being the preferred energy source in space environments. Solar energy is an efficient and long-term energy supply method in space, and solar cells are critical for power supply capability. In satellite power subsystem, solar cell arrays (solar wings) determine satellite power capacity and output. As satellite manufacturing enters an era of large-scale “industrialized” production, and with the scarcity of orbital and spectrum resources and strengthened international regulations, global low Earth orbit satellite deployment is accelerating. Meanwhile, new application scenarios such as space computing power further expand satellite power demand. We believe that the combination of increasing satellite numbers and expanding single-satellite power capacity will drive new demands for cost reduction and efficiency improvement of space solar cell arrays (solar wings).

The technological routes for space photovoltaics are evolving in a colorful array, with broad market prospects. Facing complex space environments and the continuous iteration of solar wing sizes and forms, to meet the demands for energy density, flexibility, and cost performance, satellite power battery technology is evolving from early crystalline silicon (radiation-resistant, poor foldability) → GaAs (high cost) → toward high-efficiency HJT crystalline silicon and perovskite or crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem schemes, with multiple technologies flourishing. We believe that from 2025 to 2030, the demand focus for space photovoltaics will still be on serving traditional applications in low Earth orbit satellites, with the market size potentially reaching hundreds of billions of yuan; after 2030, if space computing power enters an optimistic deployment phase, space photovoltaic demand is expected to see a stepwise expansion.

Seize the profit expansion of the entire industry chain and the first-mover advantage brought by the technological iteration of space photovoltaic cells. We have summarized the entire space photovoltaic industry chain. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the verification cycle provided by actual satellite window companies; in the long term, follow the delivery orders brought by constellation projects driven by commercial spaceflight development. Meanwhile, we believe that Chinese photovoltaic manufacturers are actively deploying high-efficiency crystalline silicon and perovskite technologies suitable for space environments. Companies with in-orbit verification capabilities and production line implementation ability are expected to gain certain first-mover advantages and release growth potential early.

Risks

Development of commercial spaceflight falling short of expectations; technological iteration and industrialization not meeting expectations.

(Source: People’s Financial News)