#币圈生存指南 2026 Cryptocurrency Survival Rules

In the game of the crypto market, most people are just rowing upstream, trying to catch the sword.
In reality, this circle is more like sailing against the current; if you don’t move forward, you fall behind.
Retail investors focus on the explosive growth curve of 2021 but overlook the fact that the underlying market logic has already undergone a “tectonic shift” this year.
If you still believe that the rise and fall of altcoins depend purely on “luck” or “whales,” then you are destined to become fuel for this institutional bull market.
To understand the fate of altcoins, you only need to see through these four dimensions of the game: liquidity, dominance, narrative, and token economics.
01 Who is deciding the life and death of altcoins?
We can formulate a deterministic equation for the breakout of altcoins:
Altcoin Surge = Liquidity (background) × Bitcoin Dominance (timing) × Narrative (direction) × Token Economics (outcome)
Liquidity: The total water level of the market
This is the source of all explosive growth.
At the beginning of this year, Bitcoin ETF has already accumulated over $115B in assets.
But this money was initially “locked” inside Bitcoin.
Only when global M2 growth accelerates and Bitcoin’s high point oscillation triggers liquidity overflow will altcoins have “water” to drink.
BTC Dominance: The starting gun
Why is the altcoin season in 2025 so delayed?
Because institutional funds are extremely pragmatic—they only recognize Bitcoin.
A decline in Bitcoin dominance is the “starting gun” for altcoins.
Only when the big brother stops rising can the overflowing funds look downward for high-multiplier Alpha opportunities.
Narrative: The flow of water
Liquidity is the total water level, but the narrative determines which pit the water flows into.
In 2026, outdated narratives are like dried-up wells; no matter how good the overall environment is, it’s futile if no money flows in.
Token Economics: The gravity of landing
Narratives can make a token soar on the wind, but when the wind stops, token economics determine whether it lands gracefully or shatters into pieces.
Reject “cold dishes,” embrace “hardcore”
Don’t dream anymore that old projects from the last cycle can sprout new shoots.
Funds in 2026 are more “picky”—they prefer narratives supported by real productivity:
AI AgentOne is not just a simple AI concept but a revolution in on-chain productivity.
When a token shifts from purely “governance” to “production consumption,” the valuation logic will change completely.
The ultimate interface for traditional financial giants entering RWA.
If you want a slice of the compliance wave, RWA is the only bridge.
DePIN brings blockchain incentive models into the physical world.
This track, supported by hardware and real network value, is the “delicacy” most favored by institutional funds.

02 Building positions like a sniper
In the potential window of Q1-Q2 2026, every move must adhere to “cognitive discipline”:
Extreme coin selection criteria
Watch unlocks: Choose projects with less than 15% of their circulating supply unlocking in the next 12 months. Avoid projects with massive institutional dumps.
Watch income: Focus on projects with actual protocol revenue; that’s their “lifeline” during the winter.
Watch distribution: The top 10 addresses should hold less than 40%. Projects with overly concentrated holdings tend to be bait for pump-and-dump schemes when rising and execution grounds when falling.
Strict position control
Altcoins’ total holdings must not exceed 30% of total crypto assets.
Single-coin holdings must not exceed 5%.
When you notice Bitcoin’s dominance strengthening again or M2 growth slowing, you must decisively reduce your positions—don’t develop emotional attachments to any altcoin.
Counterintuitive thinking is the highest form of discipline
The tragedy of the altcoin market often stems from “entering during the frenzy and cutting losses during despair.”
When you think “it can still go up,” it’s usually when liquidity has already overflowed to the end, and the bagholders have entered.
At this moment, it’s precisely when you should sell.
The 2026 market will no longer be a land of gold but a precise harvest.
Monitor M2, keep an eye on Bitcoin’s dominance, and when the narrative bubble is at its most dazzling, gracefully exit with your profits.
The road is long.
Survive, and there will be another round.