U.S.-Israel attack on Iran triggers prediction market: Polymarket-related event contracts "raise" $600 million

Deep Tide TechFlow News: On March 1st, according to CoinDesk, following the U.S. and Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket quickly launched over ten event contracts related to the Iran situation. These covered topics such as ceasefire timing, succession of the Supreme Leader, and whether U.S. troops will enter Iran. Since the attack, the related markets have attracted approximately $600 million in trading volume. The contract “Will Khamenei lose his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before March 31?” was settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death, with a trading volume of $45 million. The biggest winning account, “Curseaaaaaaa,” profited about $757,000 from a “Yes” position. Four other traders also made six-figure profits. Additionally, the largest single event contract is “When will the U.S. airstrike Iran?” which has accumulated $529 million in trading since its launch on December 22 of last year, with a single-day trading volume of $89.6 million on February 28. Subsequent prediction markets show traders generally expect the conflict to reach a phased outcome within a few weeks: the probability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before March 2 is only 4%, by March 6 is 15%, but rises to 61% before March 31, and reaches 78% before April 30.