Geopolitical conflicts' "Black Swan" strikes again! How should A-share investors respond tomorrow?

Last week’s trading session (February 24 to 27) saw the A-share market rebound after the Spring Festival, achieving three consecutive months of gains. Wind statistics show that a total of 4,161 stocks rose this week.

Based on this trend, the March market starting tomorrow (March 2) was originally expected to be quite optimistic.

However, unfortunately, this weekend, the “black swan” of geopolitical conflict struck again—fighting reignited in the Middle East.

According to reports, on February 28, U.S. President Trump posted a video on social media announcing that U.S. forces had launched a “major combat operation” against Iran, aiming to “eliminate the imminent threat posed by the Iranian regime.” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also delivered a video speech, naming the joint strike operation “Lion’s Roar.”

Analysts pointed out that the simultaneous declaration of war by both countries indicates this is not Israel’s solo action nor a limited U.S. intervention. It is a joint war coordinated over several weeks. On the other hand, compared to the “12-day war” in June 2025, Iran’s response this time was significantly faster, with a more prepared stance.

As of the morning of March 1, when this article was completed, it was clear that the situation was unlikely to be resolved over the weekend. Media reports show that both sides are still giving conflicting statements on key information.

However, according to Xinhua News Agency citing Iranian media, Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated. Iran announced that starting today (March 1), a 40-day national mourning period would begin.

Therefore, for A-share investors, how to assess the impact of this event on the broader market, and how to adjust their holdings and funds, has become an unavoidable question. Some media reports indicate that since the afternoon of February 28, major brokerages have held intensive conference calls to quickly interpret the Iran situation. Among them, a meeting by Orient Securities attracted over 2,000 participants and was fully booked instantly.

Generally speaking, based on historical experience, such geopolitical conflicts tend to be short-term positive for gold, crude oil, and other commodities, while being relatively negative for other sectors.

For example, Bloomberg’s well-known macro strategist Michael Ball analyzed that in cases like the January 2020 U.S. drone strike killing Iranian General Soleimani, Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation last year involving large-scale airstrikes on Iran, and the U.S. “Midnight Hammer” attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the typical (global) market reaction pattern is:

An initial 1-3 days of strong risk aversion—oil, gold, and the VIX spike—while the stock market remains under pressure. However, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains smooth, volatility will quickly subside, and as oil prices eliminate event risk premiums, stocks will recover their losses.

Looking at the A-share market, we note that the U.S. “Midnight Hammer” operation on June 21 last year, when President Trump announced on social media that the U.S. had attacked three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan), was a typical example. That day was a Saturday, and the news fermented over the weekend. The actual market trend showed that after a period of sideways movement, the A-share market opened lower on Monday (June 23) but quickly turned positive and rebounded strongly for three consecutive days.

Earlier, on June 13 (Friday), the day Israel launched the “Rising Lion” operation, the A-share market declined initially but recovered strongly the next trading day (June 16).

Thus, recent market memory suggests that panic caused by such geopolitical conflicts often results in sharp declines followed by quick recoveries.

But what if the situation continues to escalate?

The capital markets are inherently risk-averse. When risk aversion becomes too intense, market participants tend to shift from “herding into safe assets” to “holding cash and waiting,” which could have more profound impacts on the overall market.

As the analyst further pointed out, if U.S. military actions target the overthrow of Iran’s leadership, it could trigger sustained risk aversion and increased cross-asset volatility.

He summarized: “If the U.S. conducts ‘pre-emptive’ strikes on military facilities and Tehran responds with proportional retaliation, negotiations may still be possible, and volatility could subside; but any major attack on Iran’s leadership would mean a longer period of uncertainty, keeping oil prices and volatility high.”

Therefore, closely monitoring the Middle East situation and respecting the market’s actual trend are two key points for next week’s A-share investors.

From a short-term perspective, for those traders who previously had no positions in gold or crude oil but are eager to participate on Monday, “believing early and testing with small positions” remains a relatively safe approach.

Next, let’s review other important news this week.

(1) CSRC Holds Symposium, Sends Positive Signals

On February 27, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Party Secretary and Chairman Wu Qing held a symposium in Beijing, engaging deeply with representatives from eight foreign securities, fund, and futures institutions in China, listening to their opinions and suggestions.

Wu Qing stated that efforts will continue to deepen comprehensive reform of investment and financing, further improve the capital market system, products, and services, better serve technological innovation and new productive forces, promote higher levels of opening-up, actively participate in and advance global financial governance reform, and continuously create a transparent, stable, and predictable market environment.

(2) China’s First National Standard System for Humanoid Robots Released

On February 28, the annual conference on standardization for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence (HEIS) was held in Beijing, where the “Standard System for Humanoid Robots and Embodied Intelligence (2026 Edition)” was officially released. This is China’s first top-level standard covering the entire industry chain and lifecycle of humanoid robots, marking a new phase of standardized development in the industry.

(3) U.S. Major Indices Close Lower on Friday; Nvidia Drops 9.39% Over Two Days

Most large tech stocks declined. Nvidia, after experiencing its largest single-day drop since April 16, 2022 (5.46%) on Thursday, fell another 4% on Friday.

Analysts believe that despite Nvidia’s earnings surpassing expectations, the market response was lukewarm due to concerns that about half of its data center revenue—up 75% year-over-year at $62.3 billion—comes from its largest customers, raising demand concentration and cyclicality worries.

Later, OpenAI announced a new $110 billion investment at a valuation of $730 billion, including SoftBank’s $30 billion, Nvidia’s $30 billion, and Amazon’s $50 billion.

Nvidia is reportedly developing AI inference chips, with OpenAI potentially becoming its largest client.

(4) Cambricon, Muxi, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Others Announce Earnings

Cambricon released a quick earnings report, showing a net profit of 2.059 billion yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit.

Muxi announced a net loss of 781 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth in GPU shipments.

Zhongji Xuchuang reported a 109% year-over-year increase in net profit for 2025.

Looking ahead, here are two institutional research reports.

Zheshang Securities believes that the current bull market cycle’s main theme, represented by upstream AI computing power sectors like communications and electronics, aligns with the seasonal pattern of industry prosperity driven by technological trends. Specifically, around late May 2025, as the first-quarter earnings are released and the computing power cycle becomes clear, the first wave of market rally begins; around November 2025, driven by valuation switching logic, a second wave starts, lasting until February 2026.

Looking into March and April 2026, it is expected that due to valuation and crowdedness constraints, sectors like communications and electronics may experience phased high volatility.

However, after the fluctuations, the 2026 computing power market will depend on whether the prosperity can continue. Based on recent disclosures of capital expenditure plans by leading U.S. tech giants, the global computing power boom in 2026 is expected to persist.

Nevertheless, compared to 2025, the investment opportunities in upstream AI computing sectors in 2026 may differ, with potential shifts in leading subfields. For example, in 2025, CPO and PCB sectors led the rally, but in 2026, other subfields might take the lead, which will need to be confirmed by the upcoming earnings season around May.

Xiangcai Securities states that March is a traditional peak demand season, focusing on cyclical sectors benefiting from the “Golden March and Silver April” price increases, such as those closely related to construction.

The peak season for basic chemicals is expected to start rising in prices, and with low inventories, demand-driven price hikes in steel are also anticipated. The coal sector, supported by low inventories and resilient demand, is also expected to continue its upward trend.

Additionally, high-growth sectors driven by policies and technology, such as power equipment, benefit from the construction wave of domestic and overseas data centers, with overseas grid upgrades providing further growth space.

Previously, the focus was on non-bank financials, which have already seen valuation recovery; future attention will be on performance realization.

Based on these factors, the firm recommends focusing on coal, basic chemicals, steel, and power equipment industries, reducing exposure to non-ferrous metals, and maintaining a watchful eye on electronics, consumer, and non-bank financial sectors.

Finally, let’s look at major events next week.

The most important is the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC) approved the decision to convene the Fourth Session of the 14th NPC on December 27, 2025. According to the decision, the Fourth Session will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2026. The 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) has proposed that its Fourth Session be held on March 4, 2026, in Beijing.

From the timeline, the following events are also noteworthy:

March 2, Monday

From March 2 to 5, the Mobile World Congress (MWC 2026) will be held in Barcelona, Spain.

Apple will hold three consecutive days of product launches from March 2 to 4, with a “Special Event” scheduled to start at 10 p.m. on March 4.

March 4, Wednesday

The National Bureau of Statistics will release February PMI data

Analysts suggest that in the short term, with the resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival and the possible intensification of counter-cyclical policies, February PMI is likely to show a slight increase; in the medium term, continued policy support for manufacturing and the resilience of high-tech and equipment manufacturing will drive overall recovery. The PMI for the whole year is expected to remain above the expansion threshold, showing a pattern of short-term recovery and medium-term steady growth.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)