Middle East Situation Disrupts Imports Industry Experts: Methanol Prices May Rise Significantly

Cailian Press, March 1 (Reporter Xiao Lianghua): Conflicts have erupted in the Middle East, which may impact methanol imports. Cailian Press reporters learned from interviews with related listed companies that methanol prices have recently shown a slight rebound. “Futures haven’t opened yet, but spot prices have increased by about 30 yuan per ton. If import volumes decrease later, methanol prices could rise rapidly,” a methanol industry insider in Shandong told Cailian Press on February 28.

“Recently, methanol prices haven’t changed much. Our company’s methanol is operating at full capacity and sales. With the recent Middle East conflict, attention to methanol has indeed increased significantly. However, how prices will fluctuate in the future depends on supply and demand,” said a staff member from Jinnuo Chemical (600722.SH), calling in as an investor. A staff member from Jiangsu Sopo (600746.SH) previously revealed that the company’s methanol prices follow market trends, though downstream acetic acid prices have recently risen.

Xue Fe, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information (301299.SZ), stated that in February, Middle Eastern methanol shipments decreased. If the conflict persists and shipments continue to decline in March, domestic methanol supply will tighten further, potentially triggering wide fluctuations in methanol prices.

Middle East Conflict May Affect Methanol Imports

Customs data show that from January to November 2025, China’s methanol imports totaled approximately 12.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The largest source country for imports was Iran, accounting for about 60%, and the entire Middle East region contributed nearly 70% of China’s methanol imports. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on methanol import supply.

The domestic methanol market has been segmented. The inland market mainly relies on domestic supply, with continuous capacity additions of CTO units in recent years, increasing self-use among enterprises. Ports mainly depend on imports, with regions like East China having a much higher import dependency than the national average. Therefore, if the Middle East conflict escalates and logistics are disrupted, China could face a substantial supply gap in imported methanol, intensifying tension in coastal methanol markets.

Xue Fe noted that the Middle East situation has raised concerns about future methanol import supplies. The daily price of methanol in Taicang has risen again, and in the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate frequently.

According to Zhuo Chuang Information, as of noon on the 28th, spot methanol in Jiangsu was temporarily priced at 2185-2200 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 1.74% increase. In the afternoon, the market entered a semi-closed state with a lack of active bids.

Xue Fe added that as of February 28, the main export countries of Middle Eastern methanol shipped 275,000 tons in February, down 157,000 tons from the previous month, a decline of 36.34%. Iran’s plans to restart two units with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons have been temporarily delayed. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern freight rates have also risen significantly. If the conflict continues, shipments of Middle Eastern methanol in March may continue to decline, compounded by urgent demand filling the gap, potentially pushing prices higher in the short term. However, the extent of the increase will depend on recent transportation conditions at Asaluyeh port and the Strait of Hormuz.

Coal-Based Methanol May Boost Profits

Shanghai Steel Union data show that in recent years, raw coal prices have generally declined, leading to a recovery in profits for coal-based methanol producers and increased capacity utilization. Coke oven gas-based methanol has maintained good profitability, with high operating rates. Conversely, natural gas-based methanol companies have seen profits under pressure, with declining capacity utilization, which to some extent has lowered overall domestic methanol capacity utilization. Thanks to the structural advantage of coal-based methanol accounting for 77.29% of capacity, the overall domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is expected to significantly improve by 2025 compared to previous years.

Among industry chain listed companies, Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) is a leading coal-based methanol producer with a capacity of about 7.4 million tons per year. The company is promoting the “Liquid Sunshine” technology, with a production cost per ton below the industry average by 300-500 yuan.

China Coal Energy (601898.SH) has over 4 million tons of methanol capacity annually, leveraging coal resources for low-cost production and benefiting from significant integration advantages in coal chemical industry. Yankuang Energy (600188.SH) has over 3 million tons of capacity and is advancing low-carbon methanol technology upgrades.

China National Chemical Corporation (601117.SH) is a leader in green methanol production processes and core equipment development (electrolyzers, synthesis reactors). CIMC Anrui (03899.HK) is a key supplier of green methanol storage, transportation, and refueling equipment and system integration, suitable for shipping and other applications.

Companies Actively Deploying

By the end of April 2026, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will hold a meeting to promote the final implementation of the world’s first legally binding net-zero emission framework for shipping. Driven by this, research institutions generally expect that demand for green methanol in shipping will surge over the next five years, increasing from tens of thousands of tons annually to 30-40 million tons by 2030, a growth of over 100 times. By 2030, the green methanol market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.

Recently, A-share listed companies have been actively involved in green methanol projects.

In February 2026, Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ) received approval for the third phase of its green hydrogen-to-methanol project in Xing’an League, with a capacity of 725,000 tons, a total investment of 2.3 billion yuan, expected to start construction in May 2026 and be completed by May 2028. The first phase, with 250,000 tons, is already in operation, and environmental assessments for the second phase (60,000 tons) have been accepted.

In December 2025, Huayi Group (600623.SH) officially put into operation a 100,000-ton/year green methanol project.

On January 31, Fujei Technology (688335.SH) successfully completed a pilot of a thousand-ton-level biogas-to-green methanol process at Laogang, Shanghai, with the first batch of products released. The product has received ISCC dual certification, with a carbon reduction rate of over 95% and a purity of 99.99%. A 100,000-ton industrialization project is underway.

China Tianying (000035.SZ), in an investor relations record on February 26, announced that it has signed the world’s first electric methanol supply contract with a major international energy company, marking its green methanol products entering the supply system of mainstream global energy firms. The company is also in talks with multiple international energy and shipping companies for electric methanol supply, with potential for ongoing new orders.

On December 14 of last year, Jiazé New Energy (601619.SH) announced that its controlling subsidiary, Shanghai Jiayi Rongyuan, and its wholly owned subsidiary, Heilongjiang Jiayi Rongyuan Green Chemical Co., Ltd., plan to raise funds through self-financing and bank loans to invest in a 300,000-ton green hydrogen-based jet fuel chemical co-production project in Jixi City, Jidong County, Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of approximately 3.557 billion yuan.