#深度创作营

Recently, due to macroeconomic influences, the conflict between Israel and Iran led to a massive sell-off of Bitcoin. Several exchanges dumped nearly $3.5 billion worth of coins. However, overnight, this drop was not only recovered but the monthly opening price briefly broke through the 68,000 level after the morning close. If the war continues to escalate chaos, crude oil prices will eventually surge, significantly impacting U.S. inflation, which could lead the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. At that point, the market may reprice itself. In the short term, on an hourly chart, the price is once again showing a spike and correction trend, with bullish volume gradually decreasing. This indicates that the 68,000 resistance remains relatively strong. Looking at the four-hour bullish volume fluctuation curve, bullish volume is gradually diminishing. Considering the recent four-month and weekly net outflows from spot ETF institutions, along with the near-zero probability of a Fed rate cut in March as a potential bearish factor, I cannot see what would drive BTC to break upward and rebound.
BTC: Short at 66,900-67,400, target 64,900.