This time, the US and Israel are going to fight Iran, and it's not a joke—it's a real black swan landing.

Unlike those symbolic conflicts before, the US military is clearly planning to carry out sustained operations for several weeks, with risks pushed to the maximum. The market simply can't handle this calmly.

How the market will develop next depends on the situation, which can be divided into three scenarios:

1. If the fighting stops after a few days: the market will at most panic briefly in the short term, then emotions will settle, and it will gradually return to normal;

2. If the conflict drags on: oil prices will definitely surge, inflation will rise, military spending and shipping costs will increase, and the entire economic chain will be affected;

3. The most concerning scenario is a problem in the Strait of Hormuz: this is the transportation artery for one-fifth of the world's oil. If the shipping lane is disrupted, oil prices could skyrocket, and global stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other high-risk assets will likely experience a collective plunge.

The logic here is quite simple: oil prices rise → inflation becomes uncontrollable → bond yields soar → market funds tighten → high-risk assets are sold off first.

The market is already reacting in advance: Brent crude is approaching high levels, shipping costs are skyrocketing, and these abnormal signals are warning that danger is continuously accumulating.

In summary: short-term market shocks may pass, but if the conflict prolongs or the Strait of Hormuz truly encounters issues, it won't be a simple correction but a complete change in the global market landscape.

Opportunities will definitely arise, but first you need to survive this chaotic period. Don't rush to buy the dip; the key is to ensure you can withstand the volatility.