Crypto Morning Report: The US used Anthropic in the attack, and this week tokens like RED, HYPE, and ENA will experience large unlocks

Mysterious account accurately bets on airstrikes in Iran, Trump camp faces “insider trading” allegations.

Author: Deep Tide TechFlow

Yesterday’s Market Dynamics

Mysterious account accurately bets on airstrikes in Iran, Trump camp faces “insider trading” allegations

According to Jin10 Data, last weekend, as traditional global financial markets were closed, a large influx of funds flowed into prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges such as Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to hedge risks or speculate on the subsequent impacts of the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran through these platforms. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a public opinion storm. On Saturday, numerous questions emerged on social platform X, accusing some insiders of using advance knowledge of military strikes to profit heavily on prediction markets. In response to the criticism, a White House spokesperson defended, “The only special interest guiding the Trump administration’s decisions is the greatest interest of the American people.” In fact, efforts to crack down on insider betting related to international conflicts have already begun in some regions worldwide.

Polymarket defends “allowing users to bet on war,” claiming its “value is irreplaceable”

According to The Verge, prediction platform Polymarket defended its decision to allow users to bet on when the US would strike Iran. After actual hostilities in US-Iran conflicts resulted in casualties, the platform faced pressure and issued a statement claiming that prediction markets can “harness collective intelligence to create accurate, unbiased forecasts,” especially in tense situations where this capability is “irreplaceable.” Polymarket also criticized traditional media and X platform for failing to provide the answers people need. Previously, the platform was involved in controversies, including insider trading suspicions during the Super Bowl halftime show and predictions related to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Kalshi CEO: Will refund fees related to “Hamedani’s resignation” markets

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour posted on social media regarding the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei and related prediction markets: “We will not list markets directly linked to death. When a market might result in a death outcome, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death.”

Specifically, Kalshi will handle “Khamenei’s resignation as Supreme Leader” events as follows:

1. Refund all fees for that market;
2. If users opened positions before Khamenei’s death, settlement will be based on the last trading price before his death;
3. If users opened positions after his death, full cost will be reimbursed.

Tarek Mansour stated, “No user will lose a dollar on this market. We will settle based on the last transaction price before Khamenei’s death, which occurred at 1:14 AM Eastern Time today.”

MANTRA token to complete upgrade on March 3, including ticker change and 1:4 split

According to official MANTRA news, the MANTRA token will undergo an upgrade on March 3, including a ticker change and a 1:4 split. Users who stored OM tokens on MANTRA Chain or supported exchanges do not need to take any action; the system will automatically update the token code and increase the token amount fourfold.

The official reminder is that users holding OM tokens on Cosmos blockchain networks (such as Stargaze, Osmosis, etc.) face the risk of not receiving the 1:4 revaluation. These users should immediately transfer OM tokens to MANTRA Chain via IBC cross-chain bridge.

Opinion announces completion of S1 snapshot, S2 now officially launched

According to official sources, the BSC ecosystem prediction market platform Opinion has completed the S1 snapshot, and S2 is now officially live.

Vitalik reveals technical roadmap: state tree to shift to binary tree structure, EVM to gradually replace with RISC-V architecture

Vitalik Buterin recently posted on social platforms, detailing two key upgrade plans for Ethereum’s execution layer: improvements to the state tree and changes to the virtual machine.

The state tree will transition from the current hexadecimal Keccak MPT to a more efficient hash function-based binary tree structure (EIP-7864), expected to reduce Merkle branch length by 4 times and improve proof efficiency by 3-100 times, while lowering access costs between adjacent storage slots.

In the long-term plan, Buterin proposes gradually replacing Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with RISC-V architecture to achieve higher execution efficiency, better proof friendliness, and simpler protocol design. This transition will be implemented in three steps: first for precompiles, then allowing users to deploy new VM contracts, and finally transforming EVM into smart contracts based on the new VM.

These upgrades aim to address Ethereum’s main bottlenecks, improve network efficiency, and enhance client-side proof capabilities, laying the foundation for future scalability.

Wall Street Journal: US used Anthropic AI in Middle East attacks

According to the Wall Street Journal, the US used Anthropic’s AI technology in Middle East strikes, just hours before the attack, President Trump had issued a ban on Anthropic.

YZi Labs accuses CEA Industries of major stock disclosure violations

YZi Labs released a report today accusing CEA Industries (NASDAQ:BNC) of serious stock disclosure issues. Based on the company’s SEC filings, 10X Capital and its affiliates may hold over 5% of the company’s shares but failed to submit the necessary disclosures as required by SEC regulations. YZi Labs specifically pointed out that Hans Thomas, a board member of BNC and controlling person of 10X Capital, did not submit Form 3 in the past six months, and the company’s approved “poison pill plan” may indicate undisclosed coordinated action groups. YZi Labs urges immediate action to ensure market transparency and protect shareholder rights.

Coolpad Group spends HKD 38.89 million to buy 39,000 Strategy shares and sells call options

According to Hong Kong Economic Daily, Coolpad Group, listed in Hong Kong, disclosed it spent about HKD 38.89 million (USD 4.98 million) to purchase 39,000 shares of Bitcoin treasury company Strategy. The company also disclosed selling 390 MSTR call options (short calls), involving 39,000 shares, collecting a premium of USD 51,210 (about HKD 400,000). The options expire on March 6, with a strike price of USD 150, 15.8% above MSTR’s Friday close of USD 129.50. If all options are exercised, combined with the sale of shares and premiums, Coolpad expects to realize a profit of about USD 920,000 (about HKD 7.19 million).

Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker info again, likely to disclose BTC accumulation next week

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has again posted information related to the Bitcoin Tracker.

Based on previous patterns, Strategy tends to disclose Bitcoin accumulation info the day after related announcements.

Tokens RED, HYPE, ENA to unlock large amounts this week

According to Token Unlocks data, tokens RED, HYPE, ENA will experience significant unlocks this week:

• RED will unlock 40.85 million tokens on March 7, worth about USD 6.04 million, representing 16.13% of circulating supply;
• HYPE is expected to unlock 9.92 million tokens on March 6, worth about USD 316 million; actual announced unlock is 173,000 tokens, worth USD 554,000, representing 0.04% of circulating supply;
• ENA will unlock 40.63 million tokens on March 2, worth about USD 4.21 million, representing 0.53% of circulating supply;
• OP will unlock 19.5 million tokens on March 7, worth about USD 2.38 million, representing 0.98% of circulating supply;
• W will unlock 50.41 million tokens on March 7, worth about USD 926,000, representing 0.92% of circulating supply.

Market Trends

Recommended Reading

Meta: Can afford billion-dollar computing power but can’t keep key people

This article analyzes Meta’s current situation in AI, including challenges like talent loss, setbacks in self-developed chips, and issues in AI model development. It also discusses Meta’s strategic adjustments in AI, large-scale investments, and chip procurement strategies to compensate for R&D shortcomings.

Could GPT and Claude join forces to oppose the Pentagon?

This article discusses how OpenAI and Anthropic CEOs did not shake hands at the India AI summit due to competition. Anthropic has contracts with the US Department of Defense but refuses to accept Pentagon’s “unrestricted” use terms, especially regarding large-scale surveillance and autonomous weapons. OpenAI ultimately reached an agreement with the Pentagon, accepting some restrictions, replacing Anthropic as the US military’s AI supplier for classified networks.

Interview with Michael Saylor: Why hasn’t BTC risen to 120K? Uncovering the truth behind the $20 trillion liquidity crunch and price suppression

This detailed record features Michael Saylor discussing Bitcoin’s current state, challenges, and future prospects. He explains why Bitcoin’s price has not met expectations, exploring volatility, price suppression, retail participation, quantum computing threats, and proposes solutions like digital credit products (e.g., STRC) to attract more investors.

Market overview for Feb 28: Inflation nightmare repeats, defensive sectors surge, tech stocks collapse

This article analyzes February’s poor market performance, with inflation data exceeding expectations causing panic, rate hike expectations collapsing, tech stocks crashing, and defensive sectors outperforming. AI demand, validated by Dell’s earnings, begins to shake market confidence. Cryptocurrency markets decline with risk assets, while gold and silver soar as safe havens. Whether inflation will return remains a key concern.

a16z trend infographic: AI costs halve and usage doubles this year, US 30-year milestones delayed

This article discusses various tech and economic trends, including AI cost reductions, changes in Delaware company registration status, Kalshi prediction market performance, and delays in US 30-year milestones. It also covers AI proliferation, computing power market status, and future technological challenges.