20% Limit Up! Trading Halt at Opening, This Market Is Completely Exploding! Iran Issues Sudden Warning!

The energy market is completely ignited!

Driven by tensions in the Middle East, after today’s opening, the A-share oil and gas sector surged across the board, with Tongyuan Petroleum hitting a 20% limit-up, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), China Oilfield Services, and Intercontinental Oil & Gas all hitting limit-ups through bidding. Prior to this, Brent crude futures surged nearly 13% at the open, and WTI crude futures jumped over 10%. Additionally, CME Group announced that the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude futures triggered a circuit breaker at the start of this week’s trading.

According to CCTV News, on March 1st, local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran issued a warning: if Iran’s oil and natural gas facilities are attacked, all regional oil and gas facilities will be destroyed in response.

Currently, the global energy market is highly focused on the latest developments in the “throat” of the crude oil market—the Strait of Hormuz. According to Xinhua News Agency, real-time data from the international oil tanker traffic monitoring system shows that vessel speeds around the Strait of Hormuz have generally dropped to zero, with many ships halting to avoid risks.

Surge and Circuit Breaker

Affected by the successive escalation of Middle East tensions, international crude oil prices surged on Monday’s opening. Brent crude futures once surged nearly 13%, reaching a high of $81.57 per barrel during the day, and WTI crude futures jumped over 10%, with a high of $75 per barrel. As of 10:30, Brent futures’ gains narrowed to 5.13%, and WTI futures increased by 4.09%.

As a result, the A-share market opened with a broad rally in the oil and gas sector. By 10:30, Tongyuan Petroleum hit the 20% limit-up, and several stocks like Zhongman Petroleum, Intercontinental Oil & Gas, and Shandong Mero recorded 10% limit-ups. Stocks such as QianNeng Hengxin and Xinjin Power surged over 10%. China National Offshore Oil Corporation rose over 7%, and China National Petroleum Corporation increased over 4%. Hong Kong’s oil and gas stocks also surged, with Shandong Mero soaring over 47%, and Sinopec Oilfield Services jumping over 17%.

On March 2nd, Beijing time, CME announced that the NYMEX crude futures triggered a circuit breaker at the start of this week’s trading, causing a two-minute market delay.

Following the outbreak of conflict, global attention remains fixed on the “throat” of the crude oil market—the Strait of Hormuz. Located in southern Iran, this narrow waterway is a critical chokepoint for about 20% of global oil transportation.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Oman Gulf and is a vital route for oil exports from Middle Eastern producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE. Approximately one-fifth of global oil transportation passes through this strait. Several shipping analysts say that the rapidly worsening Middle East situation will push shipping prices higher, with oil shipping rates being particularly noteworthy.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in a report that among the key risk scenarios presented by its commodities team, the most “destructive” would be a “sustained complete disruption” of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The report also noted that “these disruptions have already begun,” but the core question is “how long they might last.”

This aligns with Bloomberg’s market focus: even if oil prices jump at the open, the true factor determining whether volatility prolongs is whether the strait remains open, insurance and shipping resume, and whether energy facilities are further targeted.

In its latest report, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast for Q2 from $62.50 per barrel to $80.

How Big Is the Impact?

Bloomberg columnist Javier Blas pointed out that despite extreme market panic, a key fact must be clarified: the disruption of shipping through the strait is a result of “business fears,” not a “physical blockade.” From a macroeconomic perspective, the energy market’s outlook remains under control.

“Iran has not weaponized its oil nor closed the strait. Israel and the US have not attacked Iran’s oil infrastructure,” Blas said. Currently, the significant drop in shipping volume is more of a “self-imposed pause” by the market.

He describes the current situation as twofold:

• Shipping volume has significantly decreased: maritime traffic has “dropped sharply,” but a few oil tankers still pass safely overnight.

• No actual “closure of the strait”: despite sensational claims on social media, Iran has not closed the strait.

Blas further explained that some of the current halt is more like a “self-imposed” pause: on one hand, insurers are withdrawing coverage; on the other, industry has paused “at the request of the US Navy in the initial hours of the conflict.”

He also noted that some of the buffer comes from pre-shipment before the attacks: in February, Persian Gulf oil exports were nearly 10% higher than the previous month, with many shipments already leaving the region. However, he warned that if Washington cannot quickly convince shipping companies that the strait is safe, the “self-imposed” pause could turn into a real supply disruption.

Maxence Visseau, research director at Arkevium in Dubai, said, “Regarding US Treasuries, I expect yields to initially fall by at least 5 to 10 basis points. But the real issue is oil. If there is any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz causing crude prices to spike to $80–$90 per barrel, the long-term bond market will face a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and inflation expectations re-pricing.”

Madison Faller, a global investment strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said that chain reactions could impact the global economy and financial system. Energy is at the core of these risks, and the Middle East is a key hub for global oil and gas transportation. Even the possibility of disruption can quickly affect production costs, consumer prices, monetary policy expectations, market sentiment, and broader growth and inflation outlooks.

(Source: Securities Firms China)