Goldman Sachs issues warning: If the Strait of Hormuz is shut down for a month, European natural gas prices could surge by 130%

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-02T03:54:37+00:00

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stalls for one month, European natural gas prices could double, driving Asian prices up by 130%. If the disruption lasts more than two months, European prices could exceed 100 euros/MWh. The impact on U.S. natural gas is limited.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-02 03:54:37

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Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Dan Struven, stated in a report on March 1 that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for a month, European natural gas prices could double or more.

They pointed out that nearly one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (mainly from Qatar) passes through this critical bottleneck; if the shutdown lasts a month, European prices and Asian spot LNG prices could surge by 130%, reaching $25 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

The analysts said, “If the disruption of natural gas supply transportation through the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer, exceeding two months, it could push European natural gas prices above €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (about $35/mmBtu), leading to more severe global natural gas demand disruptions.”

Goldman Sachs states that European natural gas prices could more than double.

However, Goldman Sachs believes the impact on U.S. natural gas may be limited. The U.S. is a major net exporter of this ultra-low-temperature fuel, and since its liquefaction plants are usually operating at full capacity, there is very little room to increase shipments.

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