[Red Envelope] Focus on the main theme PK! The top battle between retail traders' strategies and institutional strategies!

The main theme is basically a choice between small metals (tungsten) and electricity. [Taogu Ba]

The betting I needed to do on Friday has already been completed. Now, it’s just a matter of seeing who still stands in the market after Monday’s showdown.

Some teachers might be surprised—aren’t the markets supposed to rotate? Why is a main theme suddenly emerging again?

Here’s a little extra for everyone.

First, I also made normal preparations before the market opened, viewing it as a rotation among institutions.

After all, the structural bull market announced the day before has indeed made money for institutional funds!

But there’s a question: after the opening, did Yunnan Energy Holdings unexpectedly hit the seventh limit-up?

Yunnan Energy Holdings hitting the seventh limit-up—regardless of the final outcome, two things are certain:

First, Yunnan Energy Holdings itself has no trading value!

Second, hitting the seventh limit-up is a good thing.

Regarding the first point, whether Yunnan Energy Holdings surged because it was a single-plate start or as a market breakthrough benchmark, it doesn’t have intrinsic trading value!

If you understand this, good; if not, two instances will help you understand.

The second point, Yunnan Energy Holdings hitting the seventh limit-up is definitely good for the market. It’s a significant breakthrough in market movement or a positive feedback to market sentiment! For example, originally everyone was afraid of abnormal moves and dared not buy, even panic selling in advance.

Now, there’s one stock that people sold but didn’t drop further! If there’s no negative feedback afterward, won’t everyone become more willing to buy? Wouldn’t market sentiment improve?

Yunnan Energy Holdings’ breakout is good, but it itself has no trading value. Where will the funds go?

First, they will likely go to stocks in the same sector or those with similar market positions.

But looking at this operation style, these are also amateurs.

So, the only option is to look at stocks in the same sector as Yunnan Energy or those with similar market positions.

Yunnan Energy’s sector was originally electricity, but recently some analysis software has added some power generation concepts. The main hype is about electricity going overseas, similar to tokens going overseas.

This logic is actually flawed!

Token going overseas refers to our AI progress surpassing other countries globally. Since the US lacks sufficient electricity, even if data is transmitted via submarine cables to China for processing and then sent back, the cost is still lower than computing directly in the US, making tokens valuable for going overseas!

Submarine cables and other infrastructure already exist, with no significant construction costs. The concept of tokens going overseas is originally non-existent, so now there’s an innovative value from zero to one.

But electricity, we already sell to nearby countries like Vietnam, and exporting electricity isn’t new.

Moreover, regardless of whether Europe or across the ocean buy your electricity, building the grid and balancing peak and off-peak power can’t be done overnight!

Does the concept of electricity going overseas have trading value?

If none of the above works, then the last route is to follow stocks with similar market positions to Yunnan Energy, riding on sentiment!

The market’s short-term sentiment currently revolves around two sectors: price hikes and electricity.

In the price hike sector, chemical industry collapsed—evidenced by Chengxing and Jinjing Da.

Chemical stocks collapsed, but tungsten metal started to rise against the trend. Could this be a sign to watch more closely?

Normally, I don’t trade nonferrous metals in A-shares because they are heavily influenced by futures, and the returns are less than directly trading futures, with higher risks.

But tungsten metal is a niche product; this sector isn’t even listed on futures exchanges.

So, it’s again something that A-shares can price themselves!

Plus, on Friday afternoon, funds that missed out suddenly bought Zhongwu High-tech, hitting the board.

If the missed-out funds are coming in, can I add a premium to my positions again?

I won’t hype stocks, but this timing really is critical.

Next week, observe the showdown between tungsten metals and electricity sectors. If a clear decision can be made on Monday, then the main theme for next week might be worth considering.

Now, let’s talk about institutional strategies.

Institutions tend to favor rotation. Due to news hype, stocks related to Huawei have been rising more.

Normally, companies like Inspur have already peaked. But because they are highly related to Huawei, funds are still pushing them.

This part can be viewed as rotation.

Next, it’s important to see if sentiment and logic can resonate or coexist.

If the market can generate a wave of resonance between machine gaming and other themes, that would be ideal!

More details will be discussed during the week. Over the weekend, I’ll review some research reports to see if there’s any good news from the news side.

Special thanks to @WuhuQifeifei, @YiqiejieYouYou2025, @JinzhongXizhao, @WoHaiHaoQian, @BeiwosiQingChunDeFenMu, @HahaAi, @SuijiXuanXuan, @ErShuChaoGu, @KaipiZhiLiu, @DaoJianXiao66, @RiShengDaiYueLuo, @ChuLaiZhaDao, @TuHu, @PaShangYueQiuKanXingXing, @Zqzq1996 and 15 other teachers for their support!

Special thanks to @WeiAnZe, @cygj8998, @SiHuoZi, @DianZhenZhenDuan, @ShuiDaoQuCheng, @DaDaoZhiJianZhiWuWei, @XingYunDaMengDe, @WuhuQifeifei, @XianShiMei, @FeiYuA, @MiKaiLangJiRui, @WoHaiHaoQian, @BigDogEatMeat, @PforP, @HuangHuang113, @C3510, @GuYou, @ShouWangMaiTianDeXingFeng, @HuaHuaShiJie20221125, @WoShiMingMing, @QwertyuiopF for their support!

Although I still haven’t managed to recover my followers and am still limited in reach,

I’ve argued my case and managed to give everyone another live broadcast opportunity, probably next Friday or Saturday!

If you have topics you want to hear, teachers can let me know in advance!