The Double-Edged Market Under Geopolitical Risks: Gold Soars While Crypto Faces Pressure, How Will US-Iran Tensions Reshape Investment Logic?

On March 2, 2026, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East experienced its most intense upheaval in recent years. As the US-Israel coalition’s conflict with Iran suddenly escalated, the substantial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s energy gateway—caused market risk aversion to surge sharply. Gold prices broke through $5,386, crude oil prices soared by up to 13 intraday, while global equities and crypto markets generally came under pressure. This article, based on real-time data from the Gate platform, provides an in-depth analysis of how this conflict is transmitting through global assets and explores possible future scenarios.

Background and Timeline of the Conflict

The escalation of this conflict exceeded market expectations. On February 28, the US-Israel coalition launched airstrikes against Iran; on March 1, Iranian media confirmed the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the same day, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a ban on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This move marked a shift from a “geopolitical game” to a “risk of global energy flow disruption.”

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transportation and handles a large volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. Ship tracking data shows at least 150 oil tankers anchored in the area, and 11 LNG carriers traveling between Qatar have suspended operations. On March 1, President Trump announced that military actions could last for four weeks, further fueling market expectations of a prolonged conflict.

Asset Performance and Data Analysis

As of March 2, 2026, data from the Gate platform shows significant divergence among asset classes: safe-haven assets surged, while risk assets declined.

Gold continued its strong performance, with XAUT reaching a 24-hour high of $5,386.88. At press time, it was at $5,335.59, up 0.79% over 24 hours, maintaining a high-level oscillation. The 24-hour trading volume for Gate XAUT reached $94.69 million, ranking among the top three globally, reflecting ongoing safe-haven capital inflows into gold.

The crude oil market experienced intense volatility. The price of XBRUSDT (Brent crude) intraday hit $76.95, up nearly 3.47%, with a 24-hour high of $80.00 and a trading volume of $8.9184 million. According to TradingView data, the year-to-date increase is approximately 4.64%. Notably, Brent and WTI crude prices diverged: Brent continued to strengthen due to geopolitical risk premiums, while WTI was suppressed by expectations of increased US domestic production.

The overall crypto market remained under pressure. According to Gate market data, Bitcoin was at $66,700, down 1.2% over 24 hours; Ethereum was at $1,970, down 2.4%. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies was approximately $2.24 trillion. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 15, indicating extreme fear, suggesting investors are risk-averse amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Safe-haven sentiment also pushed up volatility indices. The BVIX (Bitcoin volatility index) was at 56.60, up 2.06% intraday; the EVIX (Ethereum volatility index) was at 72.52, up 1.34%, reflecting increasing market divergence on the future direction of crypto assets.

Market Sentiment and Perspectives

Current mainstream market views are layered:

Short-term safe-haven dominance: Macro traders generally adopt a “hedge first, ask questions later” approach. John Briggs, head of US interest rate strategy at Natixis, noted that US Treasury prices will continue to rise, with short-term yields falling to their lowest since 2022. The market broadly expects safe-haven flows into gold, US Treasuries, and safe currencies.

Energy risk premium focus: Strategists like Dave Mazza of Roundhill emphasize the physical shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz: “If shipping remains open, markets can digest this. If not, all risk bets become invalid.” Currently, at least 150 oil tankers are halted, making physical disruption a core support for crude oil risk premiums.

Cautious wait-and-see: Analysts like Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Chair of Global Research at Barclays, warn investors against rushing to buy risk assets on dips, as the conflict could last longer. CICC analysts point out that if international oil prices surge above $100 per barrel, the US economy could face significant downside risks, and the US is likely to try to contain the situation.

Verifying the Narrative

In an era of rapid information dissemination, it’s essential to distinguish facts, opinions, and speculation.

Facts: The Strait of Hormuz has no oil tanker movements; many ships are anchored; US-Israel military strikes against Iran have occurred; gold prices broke $5,386; Brent crude intraday touched $80; Bitcoin fell below $67,000; the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 15.

Opinions: Some institutions believe oil could break $100; others suggest the US will control the situation to prevent economic damage. These are based on different models and are not facts.

Speculations: Claims about whether the conflict will reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics or cause a long-term blockade of the Strait lack sufficient evidence. Investors should be cautious about linear extrapolations being mistaken for inevitable trends.

Industry Impact Analysis

Energy Supply Chain Transmission

Rising crude costs are propagating along the industry chain. Analysts from Longzhong and Zhuochuang indicate that increased costs will directly boost prices of basic chemicals like naphtha, olefins, and aromatics, which in turn will lift downstream products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and ethylene glycol. In the short term, China’s petrochemical market is expected to enter a phase of “easy to rise, hard to fall.”

For refining, higher oil prices will push up product prices like refined fuels and fuel oil, but increased raw material costs may lead to profit divergence. Aromatics like PX and pure benzene, driven by naphtha costs, are likely to follow crude oil prices upward.

Cross-Market Trading Infrastructure Evolution

During weekends when traditional markets are closed and cannot respond promptly, the 24/7 operation of crypto trading platforms highlights their unique value. Data from Gate shows increased activity in XAUT and XBRUSDT during weekends.

Gate TradFi has officially launched APP and Web trading interfaces covering stocks, metals, forex, indices, and commodities. Through CFDs, users can hold positions in gold, oil, and crypto assets within a unified account, enabling flexible cross-market rotation and hedging.

Gate’s derivatives have pioneered crude oil contracts, creating a commodities contract segment with perpetual contracts for XBRUSDT (Brent) and WTIUSDT (WTI), offering 24/7 trading, USDT settlement, and up to 100x leverage. Gate TradFi further supports CFD trading with up to 500x leverage, catering to different risk preferences.

Multi-Scenario Evolution Analysis

Based on current information, the potential evolution of this conflict can be outlined in three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Controlled Conflict (Short-term disturbance)

If international mediation is effective, the conflict could be contained within 1-2 weeks, with the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopening. In this case, crude oil risk premiums would quickly decline, with Brent possibly retreating to $70-72. Gold might face a correction as risk aversion subsides, but central bank gold purchases could provide a floor. Crypto markets could rebound with risk appetite, with Bitcoin testing $70,000 again.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Conflict (Medium-term stalemate)

If military operations continue for four weeks or longer, and the Strait remains blocked, the supply disruption will shift from expectation to reality. Brent crude could stabilize above $80 and challenge $85-90. Gold would benefit from ongoing safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, potentially surpassing $5,500. Crypto markets would remain under pressure, with risk asset outflows persisting and heightened panic.

Scenario 3: Escalation to Full-scale Confrontation

If fighting spreads to more Middle Eastern oil-producing countries or Iran takes retaliatory measures beyond the Strait (e.g., attacking nearby energy facilities), global oil supplies could face significant cuts. Prices might rapidly break $100, inflation pressures would spike, and major central banks would face difficult choices. Gold would become the primary safe-haven asset, possibly reaching new highs. Crypto markets could further decline due to liquidity tightening and risk aversion, though some funds might view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” leading to divergent trends.

It’s important to note that these scenarios are logical extrapolations based on current information; actual developments depend on complex geopolitical interactions.

Conclusion

The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has transcended a simple geopolitical event, becoming a litmus test for global asset pricing logic. The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has not only driven energy prices higher but also reconfigured capital flows between safe-haven and risk assets. The surge in gold and oil, along with the pressure on Bitcoin and Ethereum, vividly reflects this dynamic. As traditional and crypto markets become increasingly intertwined, the ability to flexibly allocate across markets is evolving from a “professional privilege” into a “fundamental tool.” Regardless of how the conflict unfolds, understanding asset transmission mechanisms and maintaining adaptable strategies will be key skills in navigating uncertain times.