Why is dismissing the prediction that the Bitcoin bear market will return in 2026 considered reasonable?

In the current context, a common view in the cryptocurrency market is that 2026 will be a challenging year. However, analyst Michaël van de Poppe offers a different perspective — he believes that existing data does not support this scenario. While concerns about a sharp correction are entirely normal, specific observations indicate that the Bitcoin market is operating under new rules, quite different from traditional cycles that investors have relied on.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is a Thing of the Past

Traditionally, Bitcoin is said to follow a classic four-year cycle, with deep corrections often occurring in specific years after halving events. However, this analyst argues that this classic model no longer accurately reflects the current market reality.

Looking back at history, Bitcoin fell 30% in 2014, 74% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. These figures naturally cause investors to worry that a similar crash could happen again in 2026. But Van de Poppe states that the market does not operate like a simple machine repeating a fixed cycle — we are witnessing structural shifts, where institutional capital flows are becoming increasingly important compared to traditional technical cycles.

Institutional Capital Changes the Playing Field

A key point in the analysis is the shift in sources of money within the system. Instead of retail investors dominating the market, large institutional funds and asset management companies are now actively participating in Bitcoin. This not only affects volatility but also changes market behavior patterns.

Van de Poppe notes that, when looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is not overvalued relative to the money supply in the economy (M2). Additionally, the comparison with gold is quite interesting — while gold has recently surpassed many historical highs with capital flowing from risk assets, Bitcoin is still in a correction phase. But this could signal a temporary imbalance, and history shows that such periods are often followed by strong rallies in risk assets.

Signals from Global Liquidity and Technical Indicators

On the macroeconomic level, certain signs act as potential catalysts. Rising unemployment rates, declining government bond yields, and central banks easing liquidity all point in one direction: a surge in liquidity demand. When this happens, assets considered “risky,” like Bitcoin, become attractive again.

Furthermore, Van de Poppe highlights a notable technical signal — Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently entered oversold territory, a rare phenomenon in history. These levels often coincide with market bottoms, where investors tend to step in. In other words, from a technical standpoint, the market is not approaching a collapse but is likely entering a recovery phase.

Divergence with Gold: A Positive Sign

Currently, capital is shifting from Bitcoin to gold. Gold has surpassed its historical highs, while Bitcoin has underperformed in recent months. However, the analyst does not see this as a sign of Bitcoin’s imminent demise. Instead, he argues that this divergence could indicate a temporary disconnect in the system. As gold recently gained trillions of dollars in value over a short period, Bitcoin also has strong potential for similar gains, especially as liquidity environments favor it.

Conclusion: Recovery More Likely Than Collapse

Van de Poppe concludes that no one can definitively say whether 2026 will be a year of growth or decline. However, current data — from cycles, liquidity, technical indicators, to macroeconomic conditions — all point toward the market remaining stable or even experiencing positive surprises, rather than undergoing a major crash as many predict. If Bitcoin can approach $100,000 again, the bullish trend could accelerate as currently pessimistic investors turn optimistic and re-enter the market.