Everbright Futures: Hedging Sentiment Boosts Precious Metals, Silver Returns to Strength?

The first trading day of the Year of the Horse, Shanghai silver leads the way, soaring 11% intraday, ranking first among precious metals. During the Spring Festival holiday, complex overseas geopolitical situations and changes in U.S. new tariff policies have fueled risk aversion sentiment, again attracting funds to precious metals. Silver is still expected to become the most volatile star commodity in the market by 2026, but an upward trend requires further confirmation of a bullish gold market.

The U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation is tense. As the U.S. deploys heavy troops to the Middle East with two aircraft carriers, and Iran nuclear negotiations are clouded with uncertainty, the risk of war has sharply increased. Currently, both sides are entering a critical pre-war window, with the third round of indirect talks scheduled for February 26, focusing on Iran’s uranium enrichment restrictions. Additionally, U.S. tariffs are resurging, supporting risk aversion. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariff policies under the IEEPA were illegal, requiring them to be stopped and refunds issued, but this does not affect the President’s right to impose tariffs under other domestic laws; subsequently, the U.S. President announced a 10% global import tariff, and on the 21st, he further increased this new “global import tariff” from 10% to 15%. On the 23rd, U.S. media reported that the U.S. government is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries, including large batteries and energy storage, citing “national security” reasons.

During the Spring Festival, precious metals again demonstrated sensitivity to macro events, with short-term silver volatility intensifying. Attention is on how geopolitical tensions and overseas tariff adjustments will impact it. (Everbright Futures)