March 3rd, Happy Lantern Festival!

🟢Bitcoin surged on the language-driven rally triggered by Trump's conflict last night. Pay attention to a detail: EMA7 and EMA14 seem to be forming a golden cross, so next we’ll see if the support at 67,500 holds or if it can directly break above 71,000.

🟢In the short term, this positive rebound should be understandable to everyone. The conflict in the Middle East is intensifying, with missiles flying randomly. The US is bombing Iran, Iran is attacking US military bases in neighboring countries, and there are also strikes on strategic locations. The Strait of Hormuz is a major target area. This situation is similar to a siege, which will increase risk aversion in the entire Middle East. The region is extremely wealthy, so capital will definitely prefer US dollars first, then US stocks, or shift through the crypto market.

🟢In the long term, rising oil costs and inflation rebound will occur. As a result, the market’s expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates will decrease, and there’s also a possibility of rate hikes again.

🟢For us, the more intense the short-term conflict, the quicker the positive effects will materialize. However, if this conflict cannot be sustained for long, those holding positions at high levels should be cautious about taking profits. Moving forward, focus on long positions and short-term shorts until Bitcoin reaches the 74,500-78,900 range.

🟢This time, Trump’s goal is not to change Iran’s regime but to pressure their policies. This is different from the logic of George W. Bush before. If the situation eases, risk-averse funds will immediately shift to bottom-fishing and post-war reconstruction investments! As a result, both negative and positive news will occur unexpectedly, turning what you see as bullish into bearish.

Personal analysis, for reference only!