The e-commerce and courier industry experiences its first-ever "off-season price cap," with leading companies quietly gaining market share. Will future industry competition shift from price wars to value battles?

1. What happened? E-commerce express industry experiences its first “off-season price cap” in history

1. Price side: Regulatory intervention aims to break the “post-holiday price drop” myth in e-commerce express rates and solidify bottom prices in grain-producing areas

In March 2026, the express industry entered a new round of market regulation. Unlike previous years when post-Chinese New Year price cuts were driven by capacity recovery, this year’s core grain-producing regions are expected to show strong price rigidity.

Yiwu is the indicator: According to market research and industry feedback, the Yiwu regulatory bureau clarified the bottom-line pricing strategy in late February. It is expected that in March, the minimum price for light parcels within 0.3kg in Yiwu will remain around 1.3 yuan per ticket. By comparison, in the same period in 2025, this rate had fallen below 1.0 yuan and even reached around 0.8 yuan.

Guangdong may follow suit: As the country’s largest parcel hub, Guangdong is expected to tighten regulation soon. In August 2025, Guangdong piloted a price increase of 0.4 yuan per ticket for special-rate parcels under 0.1kg, with a minimum cost per ticket of no less than 1.4 yuan. In March 2026, Guangdong is expected to continue this high-pressure stance to prevent price inversion among grain-producing regions and ensure that the “anti-inflation” gains are maintained.

2. Business volume: High growth and resilience validation under low base

Although market concerns suggest that rising rates driven by “anti-inflation” measures could suppress parcel demand, early 2026 data still shows resilience. It is estimated that the total industry parcel volume in January-February increased by 5-8% year-on-year, disproving the “demand collapse” theory.

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