0303 Review -- Be cautious of oil and gas disagreements tomorrow

3rd Board：[Taogu Ba]

1. Shui Fa Gas: Yesterday after-hours, there was news that natural gas prices increased by 40%. Today, it opened with a single large move. If you had the chance to buy overnight last night, it was timely. Today, gas stocks exploded, but tomorrow, expect a single large move again. Do not hold overnight.
2. Huasheng Chang: Volume breakout, weak closing at the end of the session, mainly because there was no sector effect; the entire market was dominated by oil and gas.
3. Yasheng Group: Gansu Agriculture, accompanying tier.
4. Heshun Petroleum: Gas stations, the logic is not solid. When the sector faces big divergence, its resilience is a hidden risk. If the leading oil and gas stocks give opportunities, would you still consider a stock with questionable logic?

2nd Board:
Mainly focused on oil and shipping, with notable performance in oil transportation during bidding. However, in the afternoon, many oil transportation stocks broke down during divergence, so expectations for oil transportation should be lowered.
Worth mentioning are the three major ETFs and oil ETFs with two consecutive limit-ups…
AI military industry, except for Huaru Technology which stands out alone, the sector has no fermentation. Zhanpeng is not doing well, and Leike and Rainbow underperformed.
Non-ferrous metals and precious metals also saw a market-wide collapse today, with the entire market dominated by oil and gas.

Oil and Gas:
Subjective ranking, do not criticize if you disagree:
T0: Intercontinental Oil & Gas (sold off 3x 5 million at the end of the session, why sell?)
T1: Zhun Oil Co. (Rabbit No. 2), Shandong Molong (order reinforcement NO2), Sinopec Oilfield Service (T1—, 138e)
T2: Mount Tai Petroleum (good volume lock), Beiken Energy (high turnover, good chart, fragmented share capital), Zhongman Petroleum (fragmented share capital, no obvious advantages or disadvantages).

Turnover capacity: CNOOC 112e (turnover capacity, weak reversal after initial strong move), CNOOC Development 103e (turnover capacity, less resilient than CNOOC).
In reality, the leading stocks in intercontinental and Sinopec are not small, and larger capacity lies in the three major oil barrels. CNOOC and CNOOC Development do not have obvious advantages.
Central army: Sinopec 1000e, PetroChina 1500e, CNOOC 1300e

Oil Transportation:
T1: China Oil Engineering 80e (oil transportation leader), China Merchants South Oil 160e (after CNOOC Engineering’s initial surge, it broke down again; today is a good buying point, but tomorrow may not be).
T2: COSCO Shipping Energy 300e (capacity), China Merchants Shipping 500e (slightly weaker resilience), Nanjing Port (gap-up stock).

First limit-up:
2nd Board: 32 stocks, 1st Board: 40 stocks, mostly gas-related. Water发3, 蓝焰2 are the main gas stocks, all considered tools for the first limit-up.
53 stocks hit the limit-down, except for oil and gas-related stocks, most other sectors declined. Oil and gas are in a bull market, other sectors in a bear market.

Tomorrow’s strategy:
If Shui Fa cannot be bought, then buying it indicates a problem. The gas sector’s competition for the first limit-up is not meaningful; focus on the 2nd Board oil and gas stocks.
Today, after-hours, Sinopec, CNOOC, and many late movers broke down to rush out. Tomorrow, oil and gas stocks may face divergence, with many stocks opening with high turnover and breaking. Focus on core breakout opportunities, be cautious with weak stocks turning strong, and avoid repeating the Bona Film scenario.
If Intercontinental remains unavailable tomorrow, overall expectations should be lowered; monitor the change in order book.
Then, select stocks mainly from the few oil and gas stocks on the T1 list. Be cautious about participating in weak-to-strong shifts tomorrow; in a weakening sector, individual stocks turning strong can lead to large declines.