[Red Envelope] Join You on the Path to Enlightenment - Year of the Horse, Part 2: Ancestors' Wisdom "You can avoid the first day, but not the fifteenth"

Good evening, everyone! Wishing you all a happy Lantern Festival. [Taogu Ba]

Today’s market was quite interesting. Yesterday, with the news of weekend trading, the Big A index unprecedentedly held firm, approaching new highs. Under this atmosphere, I thought today would be a calm day, but the market showed what was bound to come—familiar signs of the Big A returning. Today, using the rules summarized by our ancestors, the headline “Avoided the first day, can’t escape the fifteenth” is very fitting.

  
First, thank you all for your likes, comments, support, tips, and encouragement. Love you all.  
  
Please keep liking and commenting. Let’s exchange ideas and catch the妖 (monster) and the牛 (bull) together.  
  
Back to today’s market  
  

1. Overall Market Overview

1. Index Level

On March 3, 2026, the fifteenth day of the lunar new year, the index experienced volatile swings. Yesterday’s performance exceeded expectations, and some even said that since there was no big drop yesterday, the market had digested the news and would continue to rise today. From the opening, the market was stable, quickly surged higher, and even hit a new high. I mentioned the day before yesterday that a new high was imminent, and today it was broken. The difference is that today, with the new high, the market experienced a wave of selling, taking advantage of the high to sell off. The market’s protective teams still maintained support, with banks and other large-cap stocks performing well. Supported by the two oil giants hitting new highs, the index still formed a large red candle, even breaking below the 10-day moving average.

Of course, I think the A-shares today showed resilience. Compared to external markets, especially the recent strength of Korea, which even saw intraday circuit breakers, our side only moved a few points, and the first wave in the morning even briefly dipped to around -1 but then recovered, giving yesterday’s arbitrage funds a decent exit. Of course, if the afternoon’s quantitative selling had continued, there was nothing we could do.

Regarding index expectations, I believe there’s no need to be bearish. As news eases, the trend will continue. The first support level is around 4100, which remains quite solid. A large red candle doesn’t rule out a buying opportunity.

2. Market Style

The market saw over 600 stocks in the red and more than 4,800 in green. The selling was the most intense recently, with many high-priced stocks unable to hold their gains. Some stocks that had been holding on stubbornly suddenly formed large red candles, with 53 hitting the limit down—a rare sight in a long time. The strength mainly centered around the Middle East-related themes, with other sectors broadly affected.

  
**2. Market Details**  
  
**1. Sentiment Level**  
  
Sentiment is at a **freezing point**. Looking at the opening auction, the core stocks like Yunnan Energy Investment performed fairly normally. It seemed the market would continue yesterday’s strength or at least not have any big surprises. So, when the turnover hit 6%, a big surge led to a limit-up, but the locked-in positions didn’t tolerate this, and some quickly sold off, causing a deep water dive. The core stocks behaved like this, and naturally, some of the other stocks followed suit, such as Fasheng, which surged with Yunnan Energy’s limit-up but then collapsed after breaking the limit. Another core stock, Aerospace Electronics, had divergence yesterday but performed relatively well today, closing in the red. The space-themed stocks only hit the limit-up three times in two days, indicating a theoretical freeze. A breakout tomorrow is likely.  
  
Sentiment analysis: Based on the auction, the market is likely to face pressure. But today’s decline was a bit overdone, and there’s a good chance of a quick recovery. After some pressure, a rebound could be more stable. If the market is pushed down again, there’s also a possibility of further declines.  
  
The core sentiment indicator, Yunnan Energy Investment, can help gauge the overall mood. However, currently, sentiment isn’t focused on this, so participation value is somewhat lower.  
  
In stark contrast, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) saw a surge in speculative activity today. Funds maximized their bets, with over 20 stocks gaining more than 15% intraday, including about one-third hitting the limit-up, and some consecutive limit-ups unseen in a long time—only comparable to the wave of AiRong Software two years ago. Related sectors like oil and gas also saw many stocks hitting the limit-up. These strong performances are driven by sector momentum, not because the main board is weak or due to high speculative sentiment, but due to significant event-driven impacts.  
  
**In the short term, the focus remains on flexible sectors... but for unrelated sectors, it’s a game of quick reactions.**  
  
**2. Thematic Level**  
  
The strongest theme remains oil and gas. Previously, after a peak, there was a day of differentiation, but today, quantitative funds surged again after a brief pause, with major weights hitting the limit-up, benefiting the gas sector. Shipping stocks are slightly weaker but still performing well. Not much more to say.  
  
**Regarding oil and gas, they’ve hit two consecutive peaks, but the buying points are not comfortable—most are near the limit-up all day, which is unfriendly to latecomers. Also, there was a serious abnormal fluctuation in Tongyuan Petroleum, and regulatory concerns add instability. I think chasing this sector short-term isn’t cost-effective; it looks more like strong buying to hold. Meanwhile, as long as there are no major incidents, oil and gas will remain a focus, but participation is necessary. These stocks hitting the limit-up are hard to buy in.**  
  
Other sectors are suffering. No funds are flowing in, and traders are losing patience. The chemical and non-ferrous resource sectors, which had been holding sideways for a couple of days, saw no new funds today. Quantitative funds withdrew, leading to sharp declines in core stocks like Zhangyuan Tungsten and Jiang tungsten equipment, with rare earth weights also hitting the limit down. It’s a complete collapse—once the funds leave, everything falls apart.  
  
The tech sector was also disastrous today. Yesterday’s strong performer, Huasheng Tiancheng, opened high but then kept falling, with no follow-through from the computing stocks like TaiJia. Some weaker stocks like Runze Technology saw smaller declines.  
  
The commercial aerospace sector was among the worst today. The military logic isn’t recognized by the market—oil and gas can make real money in war, but commercial aerospace isn’t necessarily related to warfare. Once funds start selling, it causes a stampede, with some stocks hitting the limit down. Major players in commercial aerospace occupy a significant portion of the limit-down pool.  
  
Another typical feature is that stocks that were strong the day before tend to weaken the next day, while weaker stocks may resist declines or even form positive candles. Today, some remaining strong sectors are unlikely to rebound tomorrow; if auction signals are absent, a rush to exit may occur. If funds rush out, the controlling funds might create a false expectation and then pull the market back up. Overall, market randomness increases, and it’s hard to see a collective effort. This is the core issue with other thematic sectors.  
  
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**3. Trading Strategy Reference**  
  
Choose stocks that haven’t broken down, participate in intra-day divergence, and avoid chasing after pulses. The themes are mainly centered around the Middle East, but some independent stocks can also be observed. Recently, don’t open with a fast surge at the market open—preferably buy near the close to avoid intra-day pullbacks or sudden trend changes. Play the game of waiting for intra-day peaks and buy at the troughs.  
  
**4. Market Core Summary**  
  
Get ready, see you in the comments...