3/3 Retrospective Notes

Today, the index opened high and then declined as expected. The Korean index has already collapsed, and Korean storage chips have pulled back significantly today. Be cautious of further declines that could also drag down large A-shares’ storage chips and other semiconductors.

Currently, international silver futures have dropped sharply overnight. If it doesn’t recover before tomorrow’s open, don’t expect much. The big A-shares will continue to buy in, and the non-ferrous metals sector will keep declining, so avoid bottom-fishing easily. Before bottoming out, think more about your holdings—how many more times can you buy the dip?

Today, 4,800 stocks declined, with over 1,000 falling more than 6%. We’re nearing the limit-down level for nearly a thousand stocks. Trading volume has also increased a bit. Hopefully, tomorrow won’t be a dull knife grind; instead, let’s see a big volume drop to shake out panic and capitulation sellers, completing a phase of bottom formation. Otherwise, maintaining high index levels with sluggishness is pointless. The index is now completely distorted; 4,100 points is just an empty shell because individual stocks have already pulled back significantly. Normally, the index should be around 3,800, as many stocks are now trading below that level.

Additionally, giants like China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) have hit the daily limit-up for two consecutive days, which is rare in history. You can search online for how CNPC’s limit-ups have historically affected the index in the short term. I won’t elaborate here.

Tomorrow, there’s no need to think twice—it’s certain to open lower. I still see support at around 4,000 points. If it breaks below, it’s likely to fall back to around 3,800. The index may continue to dip slightly, with individual stocks falling sharply. Currently, the big A-shares are being drained by the oil, gas, and energy sectors, leaving other stocks weak. If the war continues to spread, tech stocks, especially high-flyers, will be hit hardest. So, check the sectors and positions of your holdings. Any sector at a high level is risky; at a low level, it’s an opportunity.

Today, coal and oil stocks performed very well, and agriculture also rose nicely. Additionally, Iran has announced a ban on grain exports, which is positive for agriculture. Remember a few months ago when I advised everyone to position in third-tier oil and coal, and fourth-tier agriculture? If you followed that, you’ve been benefiting all along, as their prices were very low back then. The market always works this way—buy low and hold long-term to earn excess returns.

Low-level sectors always have good news; high-level sectors are always full of bad news.

You can escape the first day, but not the fifteenth. Now, even the sixteenth day will be chased and beaten.