The recap for Tuesday, March 3, 2026, is finally here!

The worst fears have come true. Before the New Year, I thought things wouldn’t improve after the holiday, but I didn’t expect it to happen so abruptly and without any buffer. Now, the market can only be analyzed step by step! [Taoguba]
1: Thinking Errors
Most people believe the market decline is caused by the US-China conflict, but this is definitely a secondary factor, not the main cause. In the days following the New Year, for example yesterday, oil and gas stocks rose, and CPO stocks continued to rise as well, showing no impact. The main force demonstrated their control with strength, everything is under control. At that time, Hong Kong stocks were falling, but the main force created a false appearance of a decline below 4,000, only to open low and then rise. Why can’t today do the same? It’s a classic case of building a false front to secretly advance—Sun Tzu’s Art of War—playing these people very skillfully!
What’s more serious than an event happening at the start? On the same day the Strait of Hormuz was closed, the US boss was eliminated over the weekend. Throughout the year, I kept wondering what reason the main force would find this time. Initially, I thought it might be tariffs, but this time, taking advantage of the US-China conflict, the main force wouldn’t miss this excuse. Our ancestors always emphasized legitimacy—“fighting with a legitimate reason”—especially when it involves such a level of attack! Many are alert because, whether before or after the holiday, the rhythm is very difficult to gauge. Sometimes it’s like Victory Electronics, which fell for 29 days and then suddenly shot up with two big bullish candles; or technical breakdowns that reverse sharply—extremes in every way!
The misconception lies here. For example, I thought the index would lead the decline, with CPO stocks falling first, similar to the April 2022 drop after the Russia-Ukraine war. I was too clever, thinking the main force’s tactics would change—killing separately, then pulling up after the initial drop, creating a seesaw effect. But this time, it didn’t happen. The initial drop could still be followed by further declines, with resilient stocks making up for the fall, but the main force wants to wipe everything out in one go, to reset and get the lowest chips. Then, they can turn around and blame retail investors for not holding their positions—“Who told you not to hold?”
2: When Will It End?
Many compare this to the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. But for capital, the underlying logic is the same. Those who understand this need not go into detail. When Russia and Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, the Shanghai Composite plunged immediately. Oil wasn’t so strong back then because the situation was different. The simplest difference is that the US was in a rate-hiking cycle then, now it’s in a rate-cutting cycle. This alone makes comparison invalid. Over the past four years, technological progress, China’s development, and quantitative improvements have all been different.
Rate cuts mean more funds in the market; quantitative advances boost market momentum and madness. This explains why China’s three major oil companies hit consecutive daily limits—quantitative recognition is all about oil! China’s progress means we have stronger adaptability, but one thing hasn’t changed: the essence of A-shares—harvesting! The main force won’t miss this opportunity. For example, some companies that were wiped out in 2015 by oil prices—did they have no value? Should they be delisted? Certainly not. They are just using this wave to acquire lower chips. Those caught in the oil downturn after 2011 didn’t expect to recover in the new energy era. Nothing is impossible—especially in tech. For most people, their youth was during those 11 years! This benefits the main force, as their capital is unlimited. After being trapped, they can do other things—real estate, stocks, gold, physical assets—switching back and forth!
Today, many wonder: Is there still hope for robots? AI applications? Commercial space?
First thought: Are recent market movements targeting a specific sector or all sectors? The obvious answer is all sectors. Since it’s broad, discussing whether a particular sector can still be saved at this moment isn’t accurate. The main force first stabilizes the overall market to see the real situation. That means confirming the environment, then sectors. Today, the three major indices are falling collectively, with individual stocks dropping over 5%. Shenzhen Index fell 3%. This likely includes tonight’s US market decline, but we can’t be subjective. We must see the main force’s attitude—whether they are stabilizing the index first. Today, not only did they fail to stabilize, but they also induced a false rebound—what we often call a “trap.”
Think about the 10:30 to 11:05 period—was there someone entering the market? Probably yes, because the decline was too severe. To judge the main force’s attitude, we should look at the market’s lower limit, not the upper. For example, Chinese Online, which dropped 30 points from its high, still fell 6 points today. Such a market with no lower limit can’t even do basic sideways movement. How can we interpret this? If this continues, every rally will be like this! Not just at low levels—stocks like YanShan Technology, Aerospace Development, LEO Co., Wanguo Technology, storage chips, semiconductors, PCBs are all in a state of catching up on declines. The lower limit keeps expanding, the upper limit is also catching up, and the market’s center is shifting downward. This is unacceptable.
If the index crashes due to loss of control, the priority is to stabilize the index first, then the sentiment. If the decline is driven by panic, then stabilize sentiment first, then the index. Using this standard, if the main force can still induce a trap, it’s not out of control!
3: When Does a Major Rebound Usually Occur?
Looking at today’s market, the volume at close was 1,118 billion, with total turnover reaching 31,576 billion. In the morning, when the three major oil companies hit the daily limit, the market was still shrinking in volume. The volume in the afternoon was likely panic selling. This is actually a good sign for the daily structure—there might be a rebound tomorrow, but its strength is uncertain. Those who cut losses at the bottom are mostly retail investors, not institutions. The first thing to observe tomorrow is whether the rebound from the further decline is stronger than the initial drop. If the initial decline exceeds the rebound, there’s a problem—indicating an oversold condition. Conversely, a strong rebound requires a reversal pattern, which is a test for the market. Today’s uniform decline created a lot of trapped positions, especially after 10:30 am, when many tried to bottom-fish and failed. This is also a key resistance level for most stocks.
From the daily K-line perspective and the main force’s attitude, today is a stage where the main force has revealed its stance. Normally, the decline would be preceded by a one-day drop, followed by a day of clarification, then a continuation, and finally a stabilization—about four trading days. But this is dynamic, and tactics are changing, so only a rough estimate is possible. Based on this, the bottom might appear around Friday. Combining this with the space—around 30 points of decline—along with volume, provides a three-layer insurance for bottoming out. This solves the first problem!
4: Hotspot Analysis
Today, many are confused: isn’t the market cyclical? Is it a safe haven? Why are precious metals and minor metals still falling? The answer was clearly explained in the weekend review. Many people misunderstand resources and energy, misinterpret price increases and safe-haven attributes, and don’t understand the essence of safe-haven. Minor metals like tungsten are rising because of price increases—related to military industry, perhaps. But military stocks also fell today, and these are high-level stocks, losing their safe-haven status. Gold, needless to say, only started to rise yesterday afternoon, like Xiaocheng Technology, which is following the trend. The follow-the-trend stocks include phosphates and chemicals.
The current conflict between the US and China mainly benefits energy sources like oil, natural gas, and coal. Among these, natural gas and coal are more closely related. Electricity acts as a medium. Oil and shipping are linked. Today, energy, shipping, natural gas, and coal all performed, with coal being the weakest. European natural gas prices are uncertain—probably higher, not lower. After the Nord Stream pipeline explosion, it’s unclear if repairs are complete; the market believes they are not. Imports are mostly affected by the US-China conflict, which has suddenly shifted supply and demand dynamics!
Questions arise: Are these rises high? What happens next? Let’s make a simple assumption: if the three major oil companies push another rally, will others follow? Under current conditions, retail investors are unlikely to chase. Zhangyuan Tungsten provides a good example. But if the market consolidates instead of rising sharply, it benefits smaller-cap sectors later in the cycle. Shandong Molong and Tongyuan Petroleum have doubled, and funds are shifting up and down. How this ends is unclear, but today, funds in minor and precious metals, as well as in tech, have exited some positions. What will they do next? I believe they are preparing for the next wave of the market. If so, volume should decrease starting tomorrow.
The key is: which sectors will rise this round? Before the New Year, optical communications were strong; today, optical chips are active, influenced by external news. Previously strong sectors include computing power exports. Future funds will target different sectors; timing is more important than the specific stocks. Last April, Zhongyida didn’t rise immediately after a decline but oscillated and accumulated before climbing—very similar to April last year. Now, the goal is to find Zhongyida from last year!
As for Tuo Wei Information in the afternoon, I personally think it’s not very meaningful. The market can survive through group support, but so far, few tech stocks are being supported against the trend because tech dominates the index. When the index falls, tech stocks are easily dragged down, and group support won’t target such eye-catching stocks!
Currently, I believe the most important issue isn’t whether the market has bottomed or when it will, but how much position you hold. If the decline is around 30 points and your positions are not well-controlled, it’s meaningless to pick stocks or hold. Since late February to mid-March, I emphasized not exceeding five layers of positions. But now, I think I overestimated—things came too fast. Mark the stocks you are optimistic about and prepare for the bottom, then wait for the market to bottom out. The market is dynamic; don’t subjectively judge the bottom—just know it has started, and results will follow. Some are on the train, some waiting at the station, and that’s all. The key is knowing the right time and point—even if you miss the train, it’s okay!
Lantern Festival is here—wish everyone a happy Lantern Festival. The market isn’t targeting just you, and there’s no need to envy others. Understand the market. Those who made money in tech won’t choose oil; most short-term traders in oil are just that—short-term. If the main force carefully planned and still missed trapping people, they will do whatever it takes to achieve their goals. Short-term traders have experienced space tech, AI applications, and more. There are always suitable opportunities and pitfalls!
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