Analysis of Mid-Term Bullish Signals in Bitcoin: On-Chain Data, Macro Indicators, and Market Turning Points

According to Gate market data, as of early March 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price has been hovering around $66,980 after a prolonged five-month decline. Market sentiment swings between “bear market continuation” and “bottom already in.” Despite a 20.32% drop in BTC price over the past month, shifts in macroeconomic indicators and on-chain data are reshaping the market’s core narrative about the future. This article objectively analyzes three key reasons supporting the possibility that Bitcoin may enter a sustained mid-term upward trend, based on structure, data, and historical patterns.

Three Signals Behind the $66,980 Bitcoin

As of March 3, 2026, Gate data shows Bitcoin’s price increased by +1.08% in the past 24 hours, reaching $66,980. Although the daily movement is modest, market focus has shifted from short-term volatility to mid-term structural changes. The latest data from the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows manufacturing PMI remains in expansion for the second consecutive month, and the on-chain “Inter-Exchange Fund Flow Pulse (IFP)” is about to form a “golden cross.” These signals collectively suggest that the nearly six-month decline may be nearing its end, and market momentum could be building.

Comparison of Bitcoin and PMI index. Data source: Joe Consorti

From Five Consecutive Down Days to PMI Expansion

Bitcoin’s recent correction began after reaching a historic high of $126,080 in October 2025. Over the following five months, BTC’s monthly candlesticks closed lower each month—a level of continuous decline that has only occurred twice in history. The previous instance was during 2018-2019, when after six months of decline, Bitcoin experienced a five-month rebound, with prices rising over 300%.

In February 2026, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly recorded 52.4, surpassing the market expectation of 51.8, and remaining above the 50 expansion/contraction threshold for the second month. This data ended a three-year contraction cycle in U.S. manufacturing and is seen as a macro sign of risk appetite returning.

Three Key Indicators Signal a Mid-term Uptrend

PMI Expansion: Structural Reversal in the Macro Environment

On a macro level, U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI and Bitcoin prices have historically shown significant correlation. Analyst Joe Consorti notes that, except for 2022, sustained PMI in expansion has often preceded early stages of Bitcoin bull markets. Rising PMI indicates potential improvement in corporate investment and household income, which typically leads funds to flow from safe-haven assets into risk assets including cryptocurrencies. When manufacturing activity expands, market liquidity expectations tend to become more optimistic, providing macro support for Bitcoin.

IFP Golden Cross: Bullish On-Chain Fund Flow Signal

On-chain data offers more direct evidence. CryptoQuant’s “Inter-Exchange Fund Flow Pulse (IFP)” indicator is about to form a “golden cross.” This indicator tracks market sentiment by monitoring Bitcoin flows between spot exchanges and derivatives exchanges:

Bitcoin inter-exchange fund flow pulse. Source: CryptoQuant

In fact, after a correction lasting nearly a year, the short-term moving average of the IFP is about to cross above the long-term average. Once confirmed, this golden cross is believed to signal a fundamental shift in risk appetite among market participants, potentially initiating a new liquidity inflow cycle.

Monthly Five-Downs Pattern: Historical Pattern Suggests Rebound

Looking at price behavior itself, the February 2026 monthly close marked Bitcoin’s second occurrence of “five consecutive down months” in history. The last similar extreme sell-off was during 2018-2019, after which Bitcoin’s price rose from about $3,400 to $14,000 over the next 12 months. Although historical samples are limited, multiple months of decline often indicate exhaustion of selling momentum. When sellers are depleted and buyers regain demand, markets tend to rebound sharply. Currently, the price has fallen approximately 46.9% from its all-time high, providing technical space for a potential mid-term rebound.

Bulls vs. Bears: What Is the Market Betting On?

Current market sentiment is clearly divided.

Optimists like analysts CW and Satoshi Flipper believe that both the IFP golden cross and the extreme monthly oversold conditions suggest “most of the decline is over.” VanEck CEO Jan van Eck also points out from a cycle perspective that 2026 is the “correction year” at the end of the four-year halving cycle, and Bitcoin may be approaching a cyclical bottom. Geopolitical tensions could even enhance its appeal as a non-sovereign store of value.

Cautious voices warn that, despite macro improvements, about 38% of altcoins are still near historical lows, indicating overall market liquidity has not fully recovered. Additionally, some analysts like Virtual Bacon suggest that Bitcoin could further retest around $58,000 (near the 200-week moving average) to confirm a bottom.

How to Rationally View the Current Signals?

When considering the “mid-term uptrend” narrative, it’s important to distinguish facts from speculation.

• Facts: PMI is indeed expanding; IFP is about to form a golden cross; the monthly chart has indeed shown five consecutive down months.
• Views: These phenomena have historically been associated with or preceded bull markets.
• Speculation: The current situation will repeat history rather than create a new trend.

It’s worth noting that, despite the positive signals from IFP, the market still faces technical pressure from a “death cross.” As of early March, the BTC 3-day chart shows the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average—a “death cross” that has historically triggered an average short-term decline of about 35%. Therefore, for the “mid-term uptrend” narrative to hold, it must first withstand short-term technical pressures.

If BTC Starts Moving Up, Who Will Benefit?

If Bitcoin indeed triggers a multi-month mid-term rally as indicated, the impact on the industry will be structural.

First, as the market’s “bellwether,” a stabilization and rebound in BTC will directly improve the overall crypto market’s capital environment. Macro analyst Ash Crypto points out that the continued PMI expansion and risk appetite boost will spill over into smaller-cap assets, potentially laying the groundwork for a resurgence of altcoins in late 2026.

Second, price recovery will reignite on-chain activity. The reversal of Bitcoin flows from derivatives to spot exchanges not only signifies rebuilding long positions but also reflects restored confidence among long-term holders. This confidence is a prerequisite for further ecosystem development and Layer 2 network growth.

Three Possible Paths for Bitcoin in the Coming Months

Based on current data, Bitcoin’s future in the coming months could follow these three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Trend Reversal

PMI remains in expansion, and the U.S. economy achieves a “soft landing.” The IFP golden cross confirms effectively, with funds continuously flowing from spot to derivatives markets. In this case, Bitcoin could break through the short-term resistance of $70,000, then retest and confirm the breakout, gradually entering a mid-term uptrend, with targets revisiting previous highs. Market sentiment shifts from “neutral” to “optimistic.”

Scenario 2: Range-bound Consolidation

Macro data fluctuate, e.g., PMI falls below 50 again or non-farm payrolls disappoint significantly. Meanwhile, the IFP golden cross lacks sustained capital inflow support. This would lead BTC to trade within a broad range between $62,300 support and $70,000 resistance, using time to build a base while waiting for the next macro catalyst.

Scenario 3: Fake Breakout and Double Bottom

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East spiral out of control, triggering a risk-off reaction that offsets PMI positives. Alternatively, the IFP golden cross proves to be a “false signal,” and derivatives longs cannot sustain. In this case, Bitcoin might briefly break above $70,000 but then quickly fall back, with increased volume breaking below the $62,300 support, seeking support at $58,000 or lower cycle bottoms.

Conclusion: Bitcoin at a Crossroads

Overall, Bitcoin is currently at a critical crossroads. The PMI expansion, potential IFP golden cross, and extreme monthly oversold conditions form a picture where a mid-term trend reversal is possible. However, short-term technical resistance and macro uncertainties remain. For market participants, distinguishing facts from speculation and monitoring key support and resistance levels will be essential in the coming months to verify the authenticity of this potential mid-term uptrend.