3.3 Cycle Review Post: Fully Committed, Half the Battle Won

[Taoguba]
The sky is raising the flag, and tonight Shenyang has a red moon. Did you see it?

Today is the 15th day of the Lunar New Year, Lantern Festival. Did everyone enjoy the rice dumplings?

Outside, firecrackers are ringing, lanterns are shining, a day for family reunion.

In the Middle East, sirens are blaring, missiles tearing through the sky.

This wave of Y’s move is crazy—becoming a saint with the body, sacrificing oneself, entering the game, determined to win over the American half.

Now, looking at Y’s retaliatory strength, it’s far beyond expectations.

Large Market

It hasn’t even started yet, and it’s already over.

Usually, meetings aim to stabilize, hoping for the monkey to support the market.

I dare not open my eyes, hoping it’s just my illusion.

Today, a single bearish line appeared, changing my worldview again.

Hope it doesn’t break below the upward trend line tomorrow.

Profit-making effect

Ice point

Really never expected this to be the ice point.

Compared to yesterday’s market, today’s sentiment is more acceptable.

Truly frustrating.

Emotion cycle

Chaotic structure, strong ones are not always strong, weak ones repeatedly turn strong.

Emotions have directly jumped.

The streaks have increased to 3 boards, with 2-digit limit-downs totaling 53.

This has turned into crossing the crowd, with oil going wild in five waves crossing.

Theme cycle

Excluding oil and natural gas, no other sectors.

The market plunged sharply, with tech leading the decline.

The most aggressive domestic computing power is in the semiconductor industry chain.

AI + computing power also declined but still resisting, not fully surrendered.

Overseas computing power is passively following the decline, with less strength.

Internal differentiation in bulk commodities

Following the trend of military industry, divergence, chemical divergence, gold and non-ferrous metals divergence.

In other words, if we view bulk commodities as a big category,

Today’s movement shows divergence. Yesterday, following oil, today they all diverged.

Then, internal segmentation: natural gas strengthened.

Today, oil didn’t diverge but strengthened, similar to the chemical sector on 2/24, both with over 10,000 strength the next day, even stronger than yesterday.

So, divergence is expected to continue tomorrow.

First, Y’s retaliatory strength exceeded expectations.

Second, our market was black today, and other sectors are all losing money effects, pushing oil to form a crowd.

Oil posted +26, shipping +9, limit-up all day, expected to diverge tomorrow.

Natural gas hit +30, all day, expected to diverge tomorrow.

Today, only 76 limit-ups in total, so the market is somewhat crowding.

This wave of oil and natural gas still does not resonate with the index and sentiment, remaining an extension from the old cycle crossing and low-position new rally structure.

In bulk commodities, there are two interpretations: first, the wild dog wave’s five-wave acceleration peaks, then A kills off the low positions, nurturing new thematic logic and entering a new cycle; second, after the divergence in oil and chemical sectors, high positions remain alive, still separating new themes within bulk commodities to form a new cycle.

Style and bias

Most likely, the main trend will be upward, with streaks as a supplement.

Today’s streaks reached 3 boards, confirming the prediction.

Quantitative era

Objectivity alone can’t beat quantitative trading; only human subjectivity can.

My subjective view is:

If trading volume can maintain multiple lines simultaneously,

Overseas computing power, domestic computing power, and bulk commodities can all profit.

Timing is key.

Main trend is upward—buy on dips, not on rallies.

Written on Monday, observed today (Tuesday): excluding oil and natural gas in bulk commodities, others are not good, only oil is profitable.

Other sectors depend on the post-divergence flow of oil.

The real divergence expectation for oil will have to wait until Thursday, at least when the intercontinental oil and gas opens with volume.

I initially thought Ascend would list in March, and even if there’s divergence, oil strengthening would only cause oscillation.

Didn’t expect the market to be so dark.

Huasheng Tiancheng

No action taken first

Went to sleep in the afternoon, didn’t watch the market, just relaxed.

Misjudged Ziyangdong, didn’t move.

Closed at limit-down, then rebounded, still above the 5-day moving average.

Tomorrow still needs to oscillate and consolidate.

If it can stay above the 5-day moving average tomorrow, then whether it can hit a new high on the right side depends on the day after tomorrow.

Normal expectation: funds will first take positions tomorrow, then battle over Thursday’s oil divergence.

Runze Technology

No action taken first

Considered doing a T in the morning but decided not to due to small fluctuations.

Today, no time for a video.

Took a nap in the afternoon, still not very motivated to add fuel.