Caixin Survey | January CPI Year-over-Year Growth May Slow to 0.5%, PPI Year-over-Year Decline Expected to Continue Narrowing

2026-03-03 13:28:36

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[Caixin] The 2026 Spring Festival is nearly 20 days later than in 2025. The different timing of the Spring Festival may lead to a narrower year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. As international commodity prices for metals, crude oil, and other bulk goods rise, the Producer Price Index (PPI) may remain positive month-on-month, with continued marginal improvement year-on-year.

Recently, Caixin surveyed 12 domestic and foreign institutions, and most economists believe that the year-on-year growth rate of the January CPI may slow down, with an average forecast of 0.5%, lower than December 2025’s 0.3 percentage points. The forecast range is from 0.1% to 1.0%.

Huatai Securities’ macro research report reminds that the mismatch between the Chinese Lunar New Year and the Gregorian calendar usually causes disturbances in the data for January and February. Specifically, consumer demand tends to surge around the Spring Festival, boosting CPI growth. Since the 2026 Spring Festival is later than in 2025, it may suppress the year-on-year CPI performance in January. The forecast for January CPI year-on-year growth is 0.2%. This prediction is relatively low in the market.

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