Trump endorses: AI computing power = gas turbines, an overlooked super mainline! Orders are booked for 5 years later!

Yesterday’s Key Reminder: Risks + Risk Control! [Taoguba]
** Core Focus: The Three Big Oil Companies will trigger a capital siphoning effect, causing small and medium-sized stocks to plummet!**
** Suggested Action: Keep positions at 50-60%! Focus on defensive sectors like electricity!**
** For the next two days, the overall Middle East situation is expected to stabilize, and one of the main trend lines: Gas Turbines!**
They may continue to present trend opportunities because the performance and lines of this sector are undisputed, with ongoing explosive growth! Quietly making money!

And this research was not written today! It was also done on January 19 and November 5! And the trend remains steadily upward!

1. Core Event Drivers

1. Clarification of Trump’s policies: Expected “Self-built Power Plants” Executive Order

The Trump team has drafted a plan to define data centers as “Critical National Infrastructure,” exempting some emissions restrictions under the Clean Air Act, allowing them to build “island-style microgrids” directly outside the interconnection queue.
Quantified impact: This will reduce grid connection approval from 5 years to 6 months. For AIDC clients urgently needing power, this means “Complete Gas Turbines” become the only feasible solution.
Policy implementation expected within 100 days after the new government takes office in Q1 2025.

2. GEV order backlog specifics: “Capacity Lock” behind $150 billion
   Additional data: GE Vernova’s latest financial report shows an order backlog of $150 billion, with about 40% ($60 billion) from gas power generation.
   Capacity estimate: Assuming annual revenue of $25 billion from gas power, current orders are scheduled through 2029.
   Investment implication: This is not just “demand exceeds supply,” but “money can’t buy”. Any new demand from 2025-2027 must flow to secondary sources. This provides Chinese OEMs a 3-year absolute window until GEV’s new capacity is released in 2028.

3. AI dominance foundation: Computing power = electricity, gas turbines = computing power base.
   The US AIDC’s electricity demand will reach 245GW by 2025, with grid expansion taking 5-8 years. Gas turbines are the only power source that can quickly support AI computing power. Controlling global gas turbine capacity equals controlling the pace of global AI development.
4. Absolute energy independence: Break free from dual reliance on the grid and external energy sources. The US is self-sufficient in natural gas; gas turbines enable autonomous and controllable power, avoiding AIDC’s encroachment on civilian electricity use and stabilizing electricity prices.

2. Core Logic: Why are complete machines the core of the gas turbine industry chain?

The current industry boom is driven by the delivery capacity of complete machines, not component capacity expansion. Complete machine segment holds absolute dominance in the industry chain:

1. Capacity expansion dominance: The complete machine controls the decision. Overseas giants (GEV/Siemens/Mitsubishi) control design and certification; component suppliers must passively support according to complete machine standards. Component companies lack the ability to drive capacity expansion; they can only accept orders after the complete machine capacity is confirmed.
2. Delivery cycle gap: Complete machines determine project implementation. Urgent demand from AIDC: data centers require 6-12 months of power generation, with gas turbines as the core bottleneck.
   Domestic advantage: Chinese complete machines can be delivered in less than 20 months, overseas takes 4-5 years. Short component lead times do not affect project progress; only complete machine capacity determines the timing of computing power deployment.
3. Pricing power and profit sharing: Complete machines capture over 70% of industry chain profits. Components (castings, blades) cost ≤30%, while assembly and service profits ≥70%. Complete machine manufacturers can increase prices, lock in orders, and bundle solutions to gain excess profits.
4. Business model upgrade: From “selling equipment” to “selling AIDC energy solutions.” Complete machines are the only entry point, capable of integrating energy storage, power transmission/distribution, liquid cooling, creating an integrated power supply solution. Referencing GEV’s business model, opening long-term growth space.
5. Technology iteration dominance: Complete machines define next-generation products. Hydrogen fuel turbines and high-efficiency small turbines are mainly developed by complete machine manufacturers; components only follow adaptation.
6. Supply bottleneck in complete machines: The three major global giants hold about 90% market share but are conservative in capacity expansion. By 2030, their combined capacity is expected to be about 90GW, while global annual demand exceeds 100GW, leading to a long-term supply-demand gap.

3. Supply and Demand Pattern: Global capacity lock and permanent gap

1. Global gas turbine complete machine capacity ranking (2025 actual capacity)

2. Global supply-demand gap: Permanent shortage, continuing until 2030
   2026: Global demand 80GW, effective supply 50GW, gap 30GW.
   2027: Global demand 100GW, effective supply 70GW, gap 30GW+.
   2030: Global demand 150GW, effective supply 90GW, gap 60GW.
   Core reason: Overseas capacity expansion is slow (approval + supply chain + labor), while Chinese complete machine delivery is faster, becoming the main force to fill the gap.

3. Key event driver: GEV order backlog locks capacity
   Data: GE Vernova’s backlog exceeds $150 billion, with about 40% from gas power.
   Estimate: Assuming annual revenue of $25 billion from gas power, current orders are scheduled through 2029.
   Conclusion: Not just “demand exceeds supply,” but “money can’t buy.” Any additional demand from 2025-2027 must flow to secondary sources, providing Chinese OEMs a 3-year absolute window.

4. China’s Advantage: Delivery gap and total lifecycle cost

1. Delivery time advantage: Time value is the core competitiveness
   Phenomenon: Chinese complete machines can generate power within 20 months, overseas giants take 4-5 years.
   Logic: For AI data centers, delaying production by 1 year could cost billions in lost revenue. Fast delivery by Chinese manufacturers essentially saves clients huge opportunity costs.
   Efficiency: Relying on “full industry chain clustering + engineer dividends,” parallel engineering compresses traditional serial processes by over 50%.
2. Cost advantage: Lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) over the lifecycle
   Phenomenon: Domestic complete machines cost 20-30% less than overseas.
   Logic: Local procurement reduces raw material and logistics costs; modular design lowers maintenance difficulty. Overall estimate: domestic gas turbines have a lifecycle electricity cost at least 15% lower than overseas competitors.
3. Supply chain advantage: Industrial cluster resilience
   De-bottlenecking: Relying on large domestic casting and processing capacity, enabling multiple suppliers for backup, ensuring capacity is not locked.
   Geopolitical hedge: Introducing Chinese complete machines is a key part of global tech giants’ supply chain diversification strategy.
   Response speed: Capable of “just-in-time” production and delivery of components, quickly replenishing when overseas spare parts are short.

5. Market Space: Over Trillion Yuan

1. Unit value: AIDC small and medium turbines 100,000-150,000 RMB/MW. 1GW complete machine revenue: 10-15 billion RMB, net profit: 2-3 billion RMB.

2. Short-term space (2026-2028): Core incremental demand in North America AIDC.
   North America’s cumulative demand: 150GW, corresponding to a complete machine market of 1.5-2.25 trillion RMB.
   Estimated over the next 5 years: US data centers’ new power demand exceeds 100GW; if 30% adopts gas turbines, that’s a 30GW market.
   Total space: 30GW * 35 million RMB/GW = 1.05 trillion RMB incremental market.
   China’s share: Assuming 20% share, about 200 billion RMB export revenue potential.

6. Core complete machine targets and valuation anchors

1. Jereh — Absolute leader in global small and medium AIDC turbines

Core logic: The only deep-binding gas turbine OEM in A-shares linked to North American AIDC, with industry-leading order certainty, capacity release speed, and customer quality.
Order achievement: Since November 2025, secured 4 North American AIDC orders totaling $500 million (≈3.5 billion RMB), covering 3 top North American clients.
Capacity plan: 2026-2028 gas turbine shipments of 0.3GW/0.7GW/1GW, the only domestic manufacturer expanding in North America.
Industry barrier: Strategic cooperation with Siemens, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and Baker Hughes, avoiding bottlenecks at major OEMs.
Valuation anchor: Order coverage multiple exceeds 5x, with performance locked for the next 3 years, with potential for double growth.
2. Orient — Domestic heavy-duty gas turbine leader
Core logic: The only domestic manufacturer to mass-produce H-class heavy-duty turbines, breaking overseas monopoly with自主可控.
Capacity position: 4GW capacity, ranking in the top five globally, benefiting from global energy infrastructure demand.
Market expansion: Entering Middle East and Southeast Asian markets, with steady order growth and high stability.
Summary: Gas turbines are not just energy equipment but also the “shovel” for the AI era.
Under the triple resonance of GEV capacity lock, loosening of Trump policies, and AIDC power anxiety, 2025-2027 is the “golden three years” for Chinese gas turbine exports. Complete machine manufacturers’ delivery capacity determines pricing power; profit and valuation are just beginning to double.
Recommend overweight in complete machines, underweight in pure component segments.
After reading, do you understand why they can continue trending upward, where the value lies? Why funds ultimately choose complete machines? Which companies might see a rebound? And emerging leaders?
Like + Share + Comment: Trump personally endorses: AI computing power = gas turbines, a super main line overlooked! GEV orders exceed 1 trillion, scheduled 5 years out!

The above is just my personal trading review and reflection. Investment involves risks; trade cautiously! Plans are never faster than market changes; everything should be based on market conditions. The content reflects personal thoughts and records, for personal understanding only, not investment advice. Trade at your own risk!
(Research and compilation are not easy; your: Like + Share + Comment, is our motivation. Thank you!)

Market overview: The feared risks have appeared. The surge of the three big oil companies triggered a sharp decline in tech stocks, especially with a high open and then a sell-off, increasing risk. The morning rose to 3800, but only 549 stocks closed higher in the afternoon, with an average decline of 3%. Many may have lost over 6% today. How many can bear such risk? Constant reminders to control positions at around 50-60%! Also, the overall reduction in tech holdings is a key consideration. Finally, 4609 stocks declined, but trading volume remained at 3.12 trillion. Tomorrow, support may be around 4085, then likely entering a complex oscillation phase! The rebound may occur due to the retreat of the three big oil stocks after a spike, but the key is to focus on value! Expect oscillation and adjustment until the 9th.

Sentiment: Overall two extremes—76 stocks hit daily limit up, 53 hit limit down, with a 76% limit-up rate, and 10 stocks with three consecutive limit-ups.
Sector focus: Currently no clear main line; the strongest sectors are oil & gas, shipping, and chemicals! They continue to rotate, influenced by ongoing conflicts!
Assistance: Energy storage + optical communication + electricity + generators.
Chemicals: The leader has shifted to Jinniu Chemical, with the second tier being Jinnui and Hongxing continuing to explode! Whether this persists is key, but the impact may diminish after 3 days, so watch for possible end signals!
Shipping: The leader is COSCO Shipping South China with 2 limit-ups, and the second is COSCO Shipping with 2 limit-ups; keep an eye on event developments!
Oil & Gas: The leader is Intercontinental Oil with 6 days of 4 limit-ups, the strongest one-day limit-up, while Molong, Zhongyou, and Shui Fa have 2 limit-ups with ongoing momentum! A big rally may emerge here, but the difficulty remains high!
Success has no shortcuts—only discipline and persistence! Wishing you continued effort and good luck on your journey!

Today’s Highlights:

1. In just 3 hours on the morning of the 3rd, US State Department issued 6 evacuation orders, requiring non-essential government personnel to evacuate Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.
2. US actions against Iran: Will they impact China’s oil supply? Foreign Ministry: China will take measures to ensure energy security.
3. European natural gas prices surged further by 32%.
4. International oil prices rose sharply, with Brent crude up 4% intra-day to $80.872 per barrel.

Commodity Tracking

1. Live hogs 10.66 (-1.39%, pig cost 12, Muyuan 11.6 RMB, feed over 50%, labor 10-15%).
2. Battery lithium carbonate 160,000 (-7.51%, salt lake cost 30,000-40,000, micas 60,000-90,000, lithium hydroxide 60,000-80,000).
3. Neodymium praseodymium 8.5-25 million (-2.01%), NdFeB N35: 1.795 million (0%), light cost 350,000-400,000, MP79 million, Australia 450,000-500,000. Mining: 8,000–10,000 RMB/ton, heavy rare earths 1.3-1.5 million RMB/ton.
   Liking first, then watching—monthly income of millions! Thanks for your support!