2025 China's Brick-and-Mortar Business: Steady Increase in Customer Traffic Amid Stock Competition, New Vitality in Downward Market Driven by Business Model Optimization

In 2025, China’s physical retail sector demonstrates strong resilience amid stock competition, with a significant rebound in offline consumption. According to the latest industry report, the average daily foot traffic in shopping malls nationwide reaches 19,100 visitors, a 2.1% increase year-over-year. A total of 351 new projects opened throughout the year, down 80 from the previous year, bringing the total existing malls to 7,737. This development trend is closely related to steady macroeconomic growth—GDP, residents’ per capita disposable income, and total retail sales of consumer goods all continue to increase. Meanwhile, the proportion of physical goods retail online has declined, creating favorable conditions for the recovery of offline commerce.

Foot traffic distribution shows clear seasonal characteristics, with holidays and summer being peak periods for consumption. Major holidays like New Year’s Day, Labor Day, and National Day see strong surges in visitors, while weekend effects have weakened compared to previous years. In terms of project features, shopping centers opened within five years lead in foot traffic growth, small commercial venues excel in attracting visitors, and luxury projects maintain a consistent advantage in foot traffic. Regionally, East China has the highest density of commercial resources, with Shanghai leading the nation in per capita shopping mall stock. Third- and lower-tier cities are becoming the main focus for new commercial development, with significantly higher growth rates in foot traffic compared to first-tier cities.

The consumer demographic continues to trend younger, with nearly 70% of shoppers under 35, making this group the core consumption force. Expanded travel radius for customers has increased average browsing time, though the number of stores visited per trip has slightly decreased. Food and beverage outlets have become the most important traffic drivers, with jewelry and accessories contributing noticeably more to foot traffic. Regarding layout, the average vacancy rate in key shopping centers has slightly risen to 23%, with store adjustments accounting for a quarter of tenants. The food and beverage sector is expanding rapidly, with notable growth in coffee, beverages, and baked goods. Retail categories are overall shrinking, but digital appliances and outdoor sports equipment are growing against the trend, while apparel continues to decline.

The high-end consumption market shows signs of segmentation. Traditional luxury shopping centers see rising vacancy rates, but high-end outlet malls experience significant growth in foot traffic, becoming important consumption hubs. In outlet formats, apparel remains dominant, while segments like outdoor sports and digital appliances are expanding rapidly. The office market in first-tier cities is characterized by declining rents and moderate supply growth. The financing market is led by high-tech and manufacturing sectors, with Shenzhen’s office leasing rate unexpectedly improving. Technological empowerment and data-driven applications are becoming new industry drivers, enabling commercial spaces to better meet consumer needs through precise operations, thus promoting high-quality development of physical retail amid stock upgrades.