Van de Poppe Analysis: BTC Critical Support Under Threat, Altcoins May Reverse

Cryptocurrency markets have recently shown a divergence pattern amid volatility. According to the latest data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $66,920, down 2.20% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum remains under pressure at $1,940, down 2.02%. Notably, mainstream altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin demonstrated relative resilience during weekend trading, declining less than major coins—XRP down 1.31%, SOL down 2.74%, DOGE down 2.63%. Behind this phenomenon, veteran analyst van de Poppe’s latest market insights are worth noting.

Altcoins Show Contrarian Performance in Thin Weekend Trading

Weekend markets typically have low liquidity and trading volumes. However, in this cycle, altcoins such as XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin have shown relatively strong support. This may be related to institutional fund allocation strategies or technical support levels. Data from Bitstamp indicates Bitcoin’s price fluctuates within a narrow range, with buy and sell pressures creating a tug-of-war.

van de Poppe Reveals the True Logic Behind Bitcoin’s Range-Bound Volatility

Crypto analyst van de Poppe states in his latest analysis that Bitcoin is currently locked in a range between approximately $86,500 and $90,000. This assessment is based on multi-timeframe technical analysis. According to van de Poppe’s framework, continued testing of the lower support at $86,500 could gradually weaken the validity of that level. If buyers fail to defend this critical zone, the next wave of selling could push the price down to $83,000 or even $80,000.

A relatively optimistic signal is the rebuilding of an upward trend. van de Poppe suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims $90,000 and breaks above the 20-day moving average—a short-term trend indicator—it could open the door for further gains toward $105,000. The current price still has over 40% upside potential to reach this target.

On-Chain Data Reveals Hidden Selling Pressure in Market Structure

Latest data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows a significant dislocation between the current spot price (around $66,920) and several on-chain cost bases. Notably, short-term holders’ average cost basis is as high as $99,900, indicating many recent participants are already in a loss position.

This structural imbalance often triggers chain reactions. When Bitcoin’s price attempts to approach these loss thresholds, stop-loss sell orders tend to create a price ceiling, which may explain recent failed rebounds. Glassnode also notes that active investors’ average cost basis is about $87,700, nearly matching the current spot price, suggesting that small price fluctuations could quickly flip these investors’ positions from profit to loss, intensifying sideways market behavior.

In contrast, the real market average price (around $81,100) and realized price ($56,200) serve as medium- and long-term valuation benchmarks. The former is often seen as a medium-term support level, while the latter reflects the weighted cost of all supply. These indicators provide a psychological safety net for long-term holders.

Precious Metals Rally Sparks Macro Perspective

Beyond crypto assets, traditional safe-haven assets—especially precious metals—are experiencing rare gains. Data shows silver has surged 155% since the start of the year, temporarily surpassing U.S. Treasuries to become the third-largest asset globally; gold has gained about 72%. This rally in precious metals is reminiscent of the high levels seen during the stagflation period of 1979.

Commentators suggest that this inverse relationship between precious metals and crypto assets reflects investor concerns over long-term purchasing power. Analysts believe that the network effects and liquidity foundations of metals may not be as robust as Bitcoin’s, and once narratives shift, commodities like silver could see sharper corrections than expected. This also explains why some seasoned investors are re-evaluating Bitcoin’s unique advantages as a store of value amid silver’s surge.

This macro shift provides important context for the medium-term outlook of the crypto market. When liquidity patterns in traditional financial markets change, reallocation of funds across asset classes often drives deeper price movements.

Market Outlook: Cross-Validation of van de Poppe’s Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data

Combining van de Poppe’s technical analysis with Glassnode’s on-chain insights, the key risk zone for Bitcoin appears to be near $86,500. Breaking below this support could trigger a chain of stop-loss liquidations, but it also leaves room for a rebound to gather momentum. Investors should closely monitor the relative strength of altcoins—continued resilience in altcoins often signals that market bottoms are near.