Great Wall Strategy: Coordinated Policy Efforts to Chart a New Vision for High-Quality Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan

On March 6, 2026, the 14th National People’s Congress held a press conference, where leaders from the five core economic departments—the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, People’s Bank of China, and China Securities Regulatory Commission—collectively responded to questions from domestic and international journalists.

1. How will this year’s economic growth target be achieved? What is the policy confidence and pragmatic approach?

We have three main sources of confidence in achieving a growth target of 4.5%-5%: an economic scale exceeding 140 trillion yuan, globally recognized innovation momentum, and institutional advantages in effectively responding to risks and challenges.

During the press conference, Zheng Shanjie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, outlined a clear path to achieve this goal, focusing on four areas of “strengthening.” In building a strong domestic market, plans include over 7 trillion yuan in investments to promote the “Six Networks” (water, electricity, computing power, communication, underground pipelines, logistics), as well as new infrastructure such as low-altitude economy and “AI+” initiatives, while also releasing consumption potential through the “Two New” policies. To strengthen the modern industrial system, 200 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special national bonds will support equipment upgrades to optimize fundamentals, and new pillar industries such as Beidou (targeting a trillion-yuan scale within five years) and artificial intelligence (aiming for over 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan) will be cultivated. Breaking down large goals into specific investment amounts and industry scales demonstrates a pragmatic and actionable approach, making societal expectations more stable.

2. How do macro policies reflect a “more proactive” and “collaborative innovation” approach?

Fiscal policy has set three new records under the “more proactive” tone:

This year, general public budget expenditure first exceeded 30 trillion yuan, new government bonds reached 11.89 trillion yuan, and central transfers to local governments totaled 10.42 trillion yuan.

The most innovative measure is the establishment of a “Fiscal and Financial Coordination to Stimulate Domestic Demand” policy tool, with 100 billion yuan allocated by the central government. Using methods such as interest subsidies and guarantees, it mobilizes financial resources to support consumption and investment. The design of this tool is sophisticated: for example, interest subsidies on personal consumer loans have no sector restrictions, with a single-limit subsidy of up to 3,000 yuan, and it offers “immediate application and enjoyment,” aiming to resolve the contradiction of “strong supply but weak demand” with a small but effective measure.

The monetary policy continues to be moderately relaxed, maintaining reasonably ample liquidity, with structural tools focused on supporting expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises. This precise coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, along with innovative tools, marks a shift from simple aggregate expansion to mechanism design and efficiency improvement.

3. How will we continue to stimulate consumption potential and promote quality and expanded consumption?

Policies across departments focus closely on two main themes: “expanding domestic demand” and “promoting upgrading,” with tight coordination. At this press conference, Minister Wang Wentao elaborated on a comprehensive consumption promotion strategy—from goods consumption (version 2.0 of old-for-new) and service consumption (focusing on transportation, housekeeping, travel, and other “6+3” sectors) to sinking markets (tailored policies based on core, growth, and basic regions)—which directly aligns with the investment plans of the NDRC and the interest subsidy policies of the Ministry of Finance. When planning the “14th Five-Year” development of capital markets, the CSRC emphasizes improving the “investability” of listed companies, establishing a “long-term funds and long-term investment” mechanism, and developing diverse equity financing, aiming to serve new productive forces from the financing side and resonate with industrial upgrading. The People’s Bank of China supports technological innovation and green transformation through targeted structural monetary tools. These measures are interconnected, forming a complete policy cycle from demand stimulation to supply upgrading, from short-term stabilizing growth to medium- and long-term structural adjustment, with clear systemic features.

Risk Warning

Escalating geopolitical conflicts, Federal Reserve rate cuts below expectations, declining overseas demand, and increased volatility of the US dollar index.

(Source: Great Wall Securities)