3.17 When the car reaches the mountain, there will surely be a way ahead

Brothers, good evening! [Taogu Ba]

Let’s first review the general market situation today:

This morning, AI hardware stocks were largely profit-taking, with CPo leading the decline. PCB and copper cables opened high and then fell back. The former was due to market expectations before the GTC conference that CPo would replace copper, but those expectations were disappointed after the event. The latter two were relatively positive but were dragged down by CPo.

Storage stocks remained relatively independent and quite resilient. Among AI hardware, some felt like a utopia—mainly the three major module manufacturers: Demingli, Bwei Storage, and Jiangbolong. Bwei showed explosive growth, Demingli, the latecomer, outperformed others, while Jiangbolong was slightly weaker for unknown reasons. While AI hardware plunged, funds flowed into white wine and securities, helping the indices stay stable in the morning.

In terms of themes, the active sectors were electricity and chemicals. Chemicals surged at the open and towards the close, while electricity stocks saw a return flow at 10 am and in the afternoon. The first wave was led by China Xidian and GCL Energy Science & Technology; the second wave was led by Shunna Shares, with Hanlan Cable following, though the path was unclear.

The main difficulties are probably twofold:

One is the downward trend of the index, which is under pressure overall.

The other is the chaos within and between sectors, with market styles switching back and forth—this is the most frightening aspect.

Previously, I mentioned why domestic computing power isn’t breaking out—it’s fundamentally due to the lack of market synergy. Today, Tuowei is strong; tomorrow, Huasheng is strong. Chasing high yields is unprofitable, and over time, funds lose interest. A stagnant market naturally declines. Today, the market volume shrank by 100 billion, with only quantification and mutual cutting remaining on the surface.

1: The index is considered to be in a second decline, breaking below the 60-day moving average. The 4000-point level should theoretically provide strong support. Optimistically, it would mean recapturing the broken 60-day line today.

2: Sentiment is fragmented, with various popular stocks rotating. All the stocks that hit the daily limit are small-cap stocks, including those with big institutional backing, new stocks, and ST stocks. This is one of the few profit opportunities today. Usually, stocks that surge against the trend tend to underperform the next day, so caution is needed.

If the index and sentiment resonate for a kill, and after a reshuffle, a good wave of market opportunities may emerge. The key is to wait for this signal.

3: Sector-wise, focus on the trend-following adjustment of AI hardware, looking for relatively resilient sub-sectors and stocks. For sub-sectors, storage and PCB stand out—one feels like a utopia, the other seems misjudged. Find some with good performance, and stocks that are relatively resilient. Tomorrow, a gap-down or intra-day decline could lead to strong long-term moves.

In terms of themes, electricity and chemicals like Shunna, Hanlan, and Jinniu are more speculative and unpredictable—approach with caution.

4: The market has been quite poor recently. Now is a good time to accumulate experience and learn more about the industry. Keep a light or empty position to maintain a feel for the market, and don’t panic. When the road is blocked, there’s always a way—stay positive and respond actively.

Best wishes~

This article is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risks; please proceed with caution.