U.S. intelligence agencies say Iran's regime remains stable.

According to informed sources, U.S. intelligence agencies recently assessed that after entering the third week of U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran, the Iranian regime has been somewhat weakened but has become more hardline. Currently, the Iranian regime remains stable, with no possibility of change in leadership.

On the 16th, The Washington Post cited two sources saying that U.S. intelligence agencies believe that since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, the Iranian regime has withstood pressure and, supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has become more assertive. Western officials and analysts studying Iran believe there are no obvious cracks or signs of defection within the Iranian leadership, and a regime change is unlikely in the short term.

On March 16th, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian attended the weekly press conference at the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tehran. Amir-Abdollahian stated that the war initiated by the U.S. and Israel against Iran must end in a way that guarantees “no further aggression,” and he said that the U.S. and Israel have “learned their lesson,” realizing they are facing a country that is willing to defend itself resolutely and prepared to continue the war. Meanwhile, the costs of this conflict are rising continuously: the U.S. has spent at least $12 billion so far, 13 American soldiers have been killed, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply decreased, causing oil supply shortages.

On February 28th, the U.S. and Israel launched a military strike against Iran, prompting Iran to retaliate against Israeli targets and U.S. military bases in the Middle East. U.S. allies in the region are angry and worried about becoming targets of Iran’s retaliation. A senior official from the Gulf Arab states said, “They (the U.S.) started this war for Israel, but left us to face the attack alone.”

On the 16th, former President Donald Trump expressed surprise at the broad scope of Iran’s retaliation. He claimed, “No one expected this, we are shocked… they struck back.”

On March 9th, in Tehran’s Revolution Square, people gathered to show loyalty to Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photographed by Shadati for Xinhua News Agency. The Washington Post reported that Trump had received a “very alarming briefing” from intelligence agencies, and before approving joint attacks with Israel, he was already informed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps might retaliate. An insider said, “There was a clear warning in advance,” and Trump was aware of it long before.

Richard Nephew, a scholar at Columbia University and a former senior advisor on Iran policy under the Biden and Obama administrations, said that the war did not deter the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; “in fact, it may have strengthened their resolve.”

On the 8th, an Iranian expert panel announced that Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was selected as the new Supreme Leader. Since then, Trump has repeatedly changed his statements about the targets of military action, from initially inciting regime change in Iran, to claiming he would destroy Iran’s navy, nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and regional proxy forces, then focusing on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, and finally demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender.

(Source: Xinhua News Agency)