Grain ETF experiences nine consecutive days of net inflows as geopolitical tensions disrupt the fertilizer supply chain

In terms of news, the Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global shipping route. After the US and Israel attacked Iran, not only did international oil and natural gas prices soar, but the international fertilizer supply chain also experienced significant disruptions. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released a report indicating that shipping costs—including freight, vessel fuel, and insurance—are rising, leading to increased transportation costs across the entire fertilizer supply chain. American agricultural experts warn that U.S. farmers will also be severely affected and may be forced to adjust their planting structures.

Guoxin Securities pointed out that the supply and demand for potash are in a tight balance, with contract prices rising in February. China is the world’s largest demand country for potash, but its resource supply is relatively limited, with an import dependence of nearly 70%. By 2025, China’s potassium chloride (KCl) production is expected to reach 5.82 million tons, a 6% decrease year-on-year, while imports are around 12.614 million tons, roughly unchanged from the previous year. As of the end of February 2026, domestic port inventories of potassium chloride stood at 2.8742 million tons, a decrease of 57,500 tons or 1.96% compared to the same period last year. Moving forward, due to increasing emphasis on food security, domestic potassium fertilizer safety stocks are expected to rise above 4 million tons. In February, the average domestic market price for potassium chloride was 3,310 yuan per ton, up 0.46% month-on-month and 6.06% year-on-year. Internationally, Brazil imported 886,600 tons of potassium chloride in January, an 11% increase year-on-year, reaching a new record high, driven by spring demand boosting granular potassium chloride purchases.

As of 10:08 on March 13, 2026, the Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) surged by 1.35%, with constituent stocks such as Oriental Iron Tower up 7.12%, Chuanheng Co., Ltd. up 6.49%, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. up 5.65%, and stocks like Yajia International and Xingfa Group also rising. The Grain ETF (159698) increased by 1.24%, marking its third consecutive rise. The latest price is 1.22 yuan, with a net subscription of 71 million units during the trading session, achieving ten days of continuous net inflow.

The Grain ETF closely tracks the Guozheng Grain Industry Index, which reflects the stock price changes of listed companies related to the grain industry on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges.

Data shows that as of February 27, 2026, the top ten holdings of the Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365) are Dabeinong, Longping High-Tech, Beidahuang, Shennong Seed Industry, Salt Lake Co., Ltd., Quanyin High-Tech, Yasheng Group, Yuntianhua, Nongfa Seed Industry, and Cangge Mining, accounting for a total of 50.93% of the index weight.

The Grain ETF (159698) is connected via over-the-counter links (A: 021086; C: 021087; I: 022848).