【Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Deposits】 Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Deposit Rates 1.5% to 2.1% - Final Call 18 Banks Flash Rates One by One

Before the Federal Reserve’s meeting, the market was very cautious. Yesterday, Hang Seng led a three-month deposit rate cut of 0.2 percentage points, nearly hitting 2%, and today (March 17), two more small and medium-sized banks followed suit with rate cuts. Considering last Friday to now, a total of nine banks, large and small, have rushed to cut interest rates within just three days. Experts believe that with hot money from the Middle East parked in Hong Kong and banks flooded with liquidity, the current Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit rates are not yet low.

Click the chart 👇👇👇👇 to see a comparison of Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit rates

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Today’s moves by Hong Kong banks:

Rate cuts:

• HSBC: Full reduction across all products; the largest cut is for six-month deposits, lowered by 0.15 percentage points to 2.03%
• AirStar Bank: Three consecutive reductions; recently lowered the 4-month deposit rate by 0.05 percentage points to 2%

Hong Kong dollar falls below 7.83, hitting the lowest since August last year

IPO margin deposits exceed HKD 100 billion, causing short-term interest rates to rise. Overnight rates, which had fallen, now increase to 1.49%; similarly, the 1-month deposit rate has risen to 2.08%. The total banking system balance remains at HKD 53.854 billion, compared to HKD 44.611 billion before the “money-raising” period, a difference of HKD 9.243 billion.

The HKD exchange rate this morning ranged from 7.8293 to 7.8339, the weakest since August 15 last year, when it was 7.84, marking seven months of weakness. Tensions between the US and Iran have eased, with the US dollar index falling below 100, now at 99.905.

Five IPOs compete for margin deposits exceeding HKD 100 billion, pushing up overnight rates

Currently, five more IPOs are in fierce competition: PCB manufacturer Guanghe Technology closes its subscription today, reportedly attracting 200,000 investors, with oversubscription of 1072 times, and brokerages at least HKD 112.1 billion in margin subscriptions.

Meanwhile, online solutions provider Feishu Innovation has borrowed HKD 87.4 billion in margin, oversubscribed 503 times. Platform-based IC design company Guomin Technology borrowed HKD 1.5 billion, oversubscribed 13.6 times.

Mainland China automotive HUD (head-up display) solution provider Zejing Co. borrowed HKD 200 million, oversubscribed 1.6 times. Integrated smart logistics robot provider Kele Si Technology borrowed HKD 750 million, oversubscribed 9 times.

Despite recent IPOs breaking the record of “first-day zero loss” in 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is warming up, and retail investors are eager to “buy the dip,” reviving the myth of “winning if you get selected.” Last Monday (the 9th), the highly anticipated Youlesai Sharing, which debuted on the HKEX, opened low and declined further, closing at HKD 6.2, a 43% drop from the IPO price of HKD 11. One lot (500 shares) would lose HKD 2,400 on paper. This Chinese circular packaging service provider’s IPO was oversubscribed 5,296 times, with margin subscriptions exceeding HKD 100 billion.

Energy crisis: Morgan Stanley predicts oil prices will surge to $110 in Q2

There are many major external events ahead. Tomorrow (March 18), the US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.3% for both PPI and core PPI. Since the disruption of oil tanker transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil prices have surged over 40% in the past two weeks. Besides causing global oil supply disruptions, markets worry that high oil prices could trigger stagflation. Morgan Stanley has raised its Q2 oil price target to $110 per barrel. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reassures that once the war ends, oil prices should fall below $80 per barrel.

On Thursday (March 19), focus will be on the Fed’s rate decision and Chairman Powell’s press conference regarding oil prices, inflation, and the US economy.

Frost & Sullivan expects Middle East conflicts to ease in the coming weeks. Every $10 increase in oil prices could raise US inflation by 0.2% to 0.4%, and similarly slow US economic growth by about 0.2% to 0.4%, potentially leading to stagflation.

Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa states that if the conflict continues into April, causing two months of Strait of Hormuz transportation disruptions, Qatar and Kuwait’s GDP could shrink by 14% this year—one of the worst economic downturns since the early 1990s.

Another global focus is the “Xi-Trump meeting.” Trump has requested to postpone the meeting with Xi Jinping by about a month due to Iran war concerns. Reports suggest Trump may cancel his Beijing visit at the end of the month if China does not assist with the Strait of Hormuz escort issue. China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that top-level diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic role in China-US relations, and both sides are maintaining communication regarding Trump’s visit.

Morgan Stanley expects two rate cuts by the Fed in June and September

Despite the “black swan” event of the US and Israel attacking Iran at the end of February, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs still forecast two rate cuts within the year, with Morgan Stanley expecting cuts in June and September.

Industry forecasts for the US dollar and US interest rates:

• DBS Bank Investment Director Hou Weifu: Due to ongoing Middle East conflicts, expects no rate cuts in the first half of the year
• Allspring Global Investments: US stagflation risk may keep the Fed on hold throughout the year
• CITIC Bank International Chief Economist Ding Meng: Rapid changes in Middle East situation; potential shifts in energy and food prices could lead to the Fed maintaining its stance, with two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year. If conflicts last over a month, causing sustained energy price increases, only one 25-basis-point cut may occur.
• Standard Chartered Hong Kong Wealth Management Investment Strategist Chen Zhenglu: Expects rate cuts in the second half of the year
• China Merchants Bank International Personal and Business Banking Investment Head Zhang Haowen: US dollar index forecast ranges from 93.5 to 102 this year
• Citibank Investment Strategist Liao Jiahao: US dollar index forecast of 99.67 in 3 months, 101.88 in 6 months to 1 year; long-term target of 99.27
• Stephen Miran, a Fed board member and Trump economic ally: Iran conflict does not change the need for rate cuts this year; rising oil prices will push inflation higher, but have limited impact on core inflation. Markets are not worried about long-term CPI expectations, and inflation pressures are expected to ease. The labor market still faces risks, and he reiterates that the Fed should cut four times this year, totaling 1 percentage point, as the current gap from the neutral rate is about 1%.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, leaning toward rate cuts: Oil-driven inflation shocks could lead to stagflation, which would be the worst scenario for major central banks; hopes the Fed resumes rate cuts before year-end.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack: It’s too early to assess Iran war’s impact on the economy; supports maintaining current rates for a considerable period to bring inflation back to target and balance potential labor market weakness.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller: Rising oil prices are a single event, and the Fed does not need to react strongly; if US-Iran conflict persists and oil prices continue to rise, it could create economic uncertainty.

Hong Kong banks offer ultra-high interest rates countdown

In summary, March has entered the second half, and 18 Hong Kong banks with high interest rates are counting down.

Upcoming fixed deposit maturities with high rates in late March:

By March 20:

• China CITIC Bank International: 7-day 15% (HKD 100,000 minimum), “Lucky Draw” promotion. New and existing customers depositing new funds in March can enter a draw for every HKD 100,000 of eligible new funds, with a chance to win an extra 10% annual interest coupon. Coupons can be stacked in the same account for up to 15% extra annual interest. For HKD 1 million, this short-term deposit earns HKD 2,876 profit.

By March 22:

• Fusion Bank: 14-day 25%, 7-day 8.8%

During March 25:

• ZA Bank: 7-day 20%

End of March maturities:

• WeLab Bank: 7-day 20%
• PaoBank: 1-month 15%, 6 months and 1 year 2.75%, 3 months 2.65%
• China Construction Bank (Asia): 1-month 12%, 3 months 6.88% and 5.88%
• HSBC: 7-day 7%
• Fubon Bank: 7-day 6.88%, 1-month 3.38%
• Nanyang Commercial Bank: 7-day 6.8%, 1-month 2.88%
• DBS: 2-month 6%
• Hang Seng Bank: 7-day 5%
• Jiuyou Bank: 7-day 5%, 1-month 2.08%
• Bank of China Hong Kong: 1-month 4.8%
• Citibank: 3-month 4.3% (existing credit card customers upgrading to designated wealth management accounts)
• ICBC (Asia): 3-month 3.8%, 98 days and 188 days 2.3%
• Taishin Bank: 1-year 2.8%
• CCB (Hong Kong): 3 months 2.35%
• E.SUN Bank: 6 months 2.3%, 3 months 2.2%, 1 year 2.1%
• Standard Chartered: 3 months 2.1%, 1 year 2%, 6 months 1.95%

In March, over 20 major and small industry players have cut rates. Risk-averse investors avoid “political market” dips in stocks; to lock in high interest rates, they are choosing from rates ranging from 15% to 21%, with flexible minimum thresholds.