Chile's Copper Giant Codelco January Output Plummets 47% MoM, Year-End Production Surge Data Suspected of Being "Inflated"

Chile’s state-owned copper company, Codelco, has experienced dramatic fluctuations in its production data, raising market doubts about the authenticity of its year-end surge and the credibility of its long-term growth targets.

On March 17, Reuters reported that, according to data from the Chilean Copper Commission, Codelco’s copper production in January this year was 91,000 tons, a 47% drop from December’s 172,300 tons and an 1.8% decrease year-over-year. In December of last year, the company recorded its highest monthly output in a decade, well above the average of 105,600 tons from January to November.

This stark discrepancy has prompted industry insiders to question how the company reports its production figures. Reuters cited four anonymous former Codelco executives expressing doubts about the data and the company’s 2030 growth target. Codelco insists that the increase is real and attributes it to inventory drawdowns and operational improvements at some mines.

Year-End Data Faces Internal Scrutiny

The skepticism first comes from former executives. “The entire industry adjusts data to meet targets, but this gap clearly warrants questioning,” a former Codelco executive, who requested anonymity, told Reuters. “At the very least, it reflects inadequate planning.”

Juan Ignacio Guzmán, General Manager of Horizonte Mining, said that year-end surges are common in the industry, but such extreme fluctuations could be a warning sign or indicate adjustments in statistical methods.

According to an internal Codelco production document obtained by Reuters, in December, Chuquicamata’s oxide copper output reached 25,000 tons, more than six times the forecasted 4,000 tons; Andina recorded its highest monthly output since 2014; and Salvador’s production hit 11,500 tons, far exceeding the estimated 4,600 tons.

Codelco: Growth Supported by Data

Codelco responded to Reuters by attributing the December surge to three factors: drawdowns of heap leach stockpiles, use of non-plan inventory sources, and operational improvements at certain mines.

The company stated that the increase at Chuquicamata was mainly due to full utilization of heap leach stockpiles; the rise at Andina was driven by better ore grades and processing efficiency; and Salvador’s growth was related to the ramp-up of the Rajo Inca project and the release of stockpiles accumulated during the Potrerillos smelter shutdown in June this year.

Codelco emphasized, “This result is crucial in emergency response scenarios and demonstrates the company’s strength in maintaining production capacity through technology and talent.”

Long-term Concerns Behind the Growth

This controversy highlights deeper structural pressures facing Codelco. The company’s copper output in 2023 fell to a 25-year low, mainly due to declining ore grades and delays in key mine projects.

Production in 2024 has rebounded somewhat, with a further increase to 1.33 million tons in 2025, up 3,000 tons from 2024. However, this level still falls short of the 1.7 million tons target set for 2030.

Reuters cited multiple industry sources indicating that the December surge and subsequent sharp decline have led to cautious market sentiment regarding Codelco’s ability to achieve sustainable, structural growth, and its 2030 targets face increased skepticism.