Looking at XRP on-chain data, an interesting signal has emerged. Last week, realized losses soared to $1.93 billion, which is the first time seeing such a scale since 2022. This indicates panic selling by weak hands has reached its peak.

If history repeats itself, this might not be all bad news. About three years ago, around the end of 2022, a similar magnitude of loss occurred, and XRP subsequently rose 114% over the next eight months. Of course, the current environment isn't exactly the same as back then, but large-scale capitulation sales usually signal that weak positions are being liquidated and the coin is moving into stronger hands. This often increases the likelihood of forming a more stable bottom.

However, there are cautionary points. Unlike in 2022, macro uncertainties and regulatory variables still remain, and Bitcoin also touched $76,000 before dropping back to $74,000, failing to make a true breakout. The funding rate remains negative, indicating that bearish positions are still dominant.

Ultimately, whether this surge in losses marks a true bottom depends on how future demand and selling pressure evolve. To see a rebound like in 2022, it’s not enough to just have a single peak in selling; demand for spot assets needs to stabilize over several weeks, and selling pressure must continue to decrease.