Recovery After Drop and Capital Resonance

From April 20 to 21, Bitcoin quickly rebounded from its intraday low, briefly surging to $76,469, with a 24-hour increase of about 2.08%. This rebound was driven by two forces: first, the marginal easing of geopolitical tensions, with the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reducing extreme risk aversion in the market; second, accelerated institutional capital inflows—U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $996 million in a single week, the strongest weekly inflow since mid-January, combined with Strategy’s one-time purchase of 34,164 BTC worth $2.54B, the largest single buy-in in over a year. The total market capitalization rose to $2.55 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume increasing by 15%.

Bullish factors, bears remain

On-chain data reveal disagreements behind the rebound. CryptoQuant analyst pointed out that long-term holders have net accumulated about 354k BTC over the past 30 days, indicating structural buying; however, about 60k BTC were transferred to exchanges during the same period, and the realized profit-loss ratio remains below 1, suggesting some holders are reducing their positions at a loss, a typical feature of a "bear market rebound" rather than a trend reversal. The derivatives market is also cautious—perpetual contract funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days, and futures market short positions continue to grow, forming a "long-short tug-of-war" with the strong buying in spot ETFs. Additionally, the $76,000–$78,000 zone constitutes a dense resistance area, and whether it can break through remains a key short-term trend determinant.

Market outlook

The market is at a critical decision point. If geopolitical tensions continue to ease and ETF inflows remain strong, Bitcoin may test the $77,000–$78,000 range upward; conversely, if negotiations break down or macro sentiment weakens again, a retest of the $74,000 support level is possible. For investors, it is crucial to closely monitor the final developments of U.S.-Iran negotiations and signals of ETF capital sustainability, avoiding chasing highs based on a single positive catalyst. #比特币反弹