Shouchuang Futures: Indonesia's raw coconut policy may exceed expectations, leading to a significant rise in palm oil.

Today, the domestic palm oil market surged significantly, driving the overall strength of oils and fats. Indonesia’s raw diesel policy may exceed expectations; a document labeled as highly urgent was issued today by Indonesia’s Ministry of Minerals and Energy, requiring the mandatory implementation of B50 diesel for all types of domestic diesel starting July 1, whereas the previously circulated policy only covered subsidized internal use. This has sparked concerns about further escalation of Indonesia’s raw diesel policy, and the tight implementation timeline may lead to a short-term unexpected tightening of palm oil supply. As a result, in the afternoon, both domestic and international palm oil prices rapidly rose, with settlement prices increasing by over 3%. Additionally, Indonesia’s GAPKI data shows that at the end of February, Indonesia’s palm oil stock was 2.02 million tons, remaining at a seasonal low. The Middle East situation still carries considerable uncertainty; market attention is on whether the US and Iran will negotiate before the expiration of the ceasefire agreement, and whether the ceasefire will be extended. Overall, short-term raw diesel consumption expectations are rising, supporting a rebound in palm oil from recent lows, but actual policy implementation remains to be confirmed. Furthermore, the Strait situation still requires observation. In terms of trading strategy, it is advisable to cautiously hold long positions bought on dips around 9,200-9,300, and currently not recommended to aggressively chase longs. Attention should be paid to the key timing node of tomorrow’s ceasefire expiration. (First Capital Futures)