🔴TODAY'S AGENDA FOR INVESTORS⚠️

1. Diplomacy Traffic on the US - Iran - Pakistan Line
• News Flow and Uncertainty: Although conflicting statements from Iran yesterday increased tension, the news that the delegation will go to Pakistan and that US Vice President JD Vance will also be present slightly eased market tension.
• Critical Process: The ceasefire period expires tomorrow evening (Washington time). Trump states the likelihood of extension is low, increasing pressure on Iran.
• Main Conflict Points: * Limiting Iran’s nuclear capacity and lifting the US embargo are the main bargaining topics.
• Petrodollar Threat: Iran’s desire to collect Hurmuz Strait transit fees in a non-dollar currency is one of the most sensitive points for the US.
2. Market Expectations and Pricing
• Cautious Optimism: Markets expect a decision today that, at minimum, extends the ceasefire rather than a "full agreement."
• Asymmetric Reaction Risk: The market is currently focused on positive news. Therefore, the impact of a positive announcement could be offset by the destruction caused by negative news, leading to an imbalance in (pricing gap).
3. FED and New Chairman Kevin Warsh
• Emphasis on Independence: The new FED Chairman Kevin Warsh will appear before the Senate today at 19:00. Warsh will deliver strong messages that monetary policy will remain free from Trump’s influence and fully independent.
• Overlooked Agenda: Normally, Warsh’s statements would be the most important for markets, but due to the current war and conflict risks, they have taken a backseat.
4. Macro Economic Agenda and Interest Rate Expectations
• Critical Data: US retail sales (today), PMI data from Western countries (Thursday), and Japan’s CPI (Friday) will be followed.
• Central Banks: Next week, the FED, ECB, BOJ, and BOE will announce interest rate decisions. Due to the war risk, there is a prevailing perception that central banks may adopt a more hawkish (squeeze) stance.
5. Latest Situation in Global Markets
• Stocks: US futures, Japan, and Hong Kong stock markets are showing limited positive trends; China is slightly bearish.
• Indicators: US 10-year bond yield is at 4.25%, the Dollar Index is at 98.1, and Gold per ounce is trading at $4,800.
6. Domestic Agenda:
• Interest Rate Decision: The CBRT will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow (Thursday). The expectation is to keep rates unchanged. The outcome of US-Iran talks is critical for the CBRT’s inflation risk management.
Summary: Today, markets are entirely focused on negotiations in Pakistan. A "moderate" positive news could boost optimism; however, if red lines are crossed, risk appetite could decline rapidly.
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