#美伊二轮谈判进展 What will the Iran-U.S. situation unfold like? Five paths ahead for Trump

As the deadline of April 22 approaches, the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is also about to end. For global financial markets, the "tension" since this conflict erupted is clearly returning.
In the past few days, the occasional blockade, lifting the blockade, and re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz can all be seen as part of the peace negotiations game that began on April 8. Both sides' attitudes toward negotiations have fluctuated dramatically, just like the blockade status. Even before recent conflicts erupted, Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Badri, who was mediating between the U.S. and Iran, claimed a "historic breakthrough" had been achieved. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also emphasized this positive progress, and even U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated that an agreement was imminent. But at least for now, all these seemingly optimistic statements are just fragile hopes.
Over the weekend, with the U.S. Navy's first use of force to seize an Iranian cargo ship, Iran re-imposed the blockade of the strait, and both sides' stances are once again tense. Trump warned on Monday that if the temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran expires without an agreement, extending the ceasefire for two more periods is "extremely unlikely." The U.S. will have to "drop bombs again"; meanwhile, Iran has not even nodded to "attend" negotiations. Notably, besides the April 22 deadline for the ceasefire, another date of concern is May 1. According to the U.S. War Powers Act, the president cannot deploy troops abroad without congressional authorization for more than 60 days. Since Trump officially notified Congress of military actions against Iran on March 2, he must seek congressional approval before May 1 to continue military operations in Iran. This means time has become Trump's biggest enemy.
Industry insiders point out that as the U.S. prepares for a new round of peace talks with Iran in Pakistan, Trump faces five major options, and his decision will undoubtedly be a focus of global attention...

① Hold firm on a tough stance
Trump has made several demands on Iran in recent days, including freezing uranium enrichment activities for at least 20 years, removing its highly enriched uranium, and fully lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Senior U.S. officials say these are the president's bottom lines. These officials state that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes over the past few weeks have dealt a heavy blow to Iran's military, and the blockade of Iranian ports is increasing pressure on Iran's already weakened economy. But so far, the Iranian government still refuses to relax the blockade of the strait and hints it will not give up its uranium enrichment plans. If Trump refuses to make concessions on these demands, Iran might compromise in negotiations—but there is also a risk that Iran will refuse to compromise, leading to renewed war.

② Continue to delay and negotiate
Both sides may still fail to reach a final agreement after talks in Islamabad, but at least they can sign a "memorandum of understanding" outlining the overall framework of possible future consensus and agree to extend the current ceasefire period again. This would buy time for further diplomatic efforts.

③ Mutual concessions
Officials and analysts say there are many ways to reach a compromise. One proposed plan by negotiators is: Iran agrees to freeze high-enriched uranium activities for the next 20 years, but after the first 10 years, it can conduct nuclear-related research or produce small amounts of low-enriched uranium, maintaining this state for at least another 10 years. Other compromise options might include Iran agreeing to give up its uranium stockpiles at 60% or 20% enrichment, while retaining low-enriched uranium stockpiles. It is unclear whether Trump would accept such compromises. The possibility of Iran secretly reprocessing weapons-grade uranium in the future cannot be ruled out.

④ Resume the war
Trump has warned that if negotiations in Pakistan fail, he is inclined not to extend the ceasefire. Restarting the war would subject Iran to a new round of devastating strikes, but it also carries risks for the U.S. This war is already highly controversial within the U.S., causing divisions within the Republican Party and pushing up energy prices and inflation nationwide. U.S. defense officials also worry that the key munitions used in an Iran war could lead to shortages affecting military operations elsewhere in the world.

⑤ Pull out and step away
U.S. officials and White House insiders say that Trump's fifth option—completely withdrawing from the military engagement—is the least likely, but it is a concern privately discussed among senior Arab and European officials after the first round of negotiations failed. Trump might declare victory and withdraw directly, maintaining a situation that many U.S. allies find nightmare-inducing: a damaged but still intact Iranian regime, capable of continuing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and possessing the technology to rebuild its nuclear program.

Financial markets are on high alert: the most dangerous path still leads to $200 oil
Regarding the current trajectory of the U.S.-Iran situation, well-known writer and former Montreal Bank foreign exchange chief Simon Watkins suggests that a relatively likely outcome is that no agreement will be reached by midweek, but the ceasefire will be extended for further negotiations. According to last week's reports from an EU official and a senior Washington legal source working closely with the U.S. Treasury, if this occurs, the U.S. is likely to maintain the status quo and refrain from action. Specifically, the U.S. will continue to blockade Iranian ports and further consolidate its military presence off the southern coast of Iran—"George H. W. Bush" aircraft carrier recently bypassed the Cape of Good Hope and is heading toward the region. With other military assets deployed nearby, as long as Washington maintains remote blockade measures, there should be no substantial difficulty in enforcing the blockade on Iran. "These forces—(U.S. Navy and other units—)can fully monitor and execute the blockade of Iran in the Arabian Sea," the Washington source said. "For the same purpose, we also decided not to renew the 30-day sanctions exemptions on Iranian oil exports—(which expired on April 19—)and further extended financial sanctions on Iran," he added. Under this scenario—where blockade measures are in place but negotiations continue—the market situation may not differ much from the past week.
A less optimistic scenario is that if no agreement is reached by midweek and the ceasefire is not extended, full-scale war between the U.S. and Iran will reignite. "From Iran's perspective, this would include continuing to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mandeb, attacking key energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, targeting critical U.S. military and civilian targets in the region, and subsequently launching attacks on the U.S., Israel, and any countries linked to U.S.-Iran conflicts," a source said. "If Iran goes down this path, the U.S. will consider stronger measures, including the kind of infrastructure strikes Trump recently mentioned (such as key bridges and civilian power plants), targeted military operations, and increased sanctions—all aimed at exerting internal and external pressure on the current regime," he emphasized.
In this scenario, oil prices are very likely to reach the $200 per barrel level initially predicted by Iran during the early stages of the war.
Vikas Dwivedi, a global energy strategist at Macquarie Group headquartered in Houston, has assessed the potential impact of the war lasting until the end of June. Dwivedi said, "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, oil prices will need to rise to levels capable of destroying the rare global large-scale oil demand in history. Some countries—(especially Asian nations—)are already facing physical shortages. And given today’s global economy’s reliance on oil far below the levels of 50 years ago, if this requires oil prices to stay at historic highs—for example, over $200 per barrel—we wouldn’t be surprised. That would be equivalent to gasoline prices in the U.S. reaching about $7 per gallon."
Watkins previously warned that such a scenario would be extremely unfavorable for the U.S. and politically disastrous for Trump. Historical data shows that every $10 change in oil prices causes the U.S. gasoline price to fluctuate by about 25-30 cents per gallon; and for every 1-cent increase in the average U.S. gasoline price, the country loses over $1 billion annually in consumer spending, causing severe economic damage.