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There’s a fairly common psychological phenomenon: before prices have gone up, people habitually look down on them. Once prices really rise, people habitually demand too much.
Gold is a vivid, living example. At the beginning, most people thought: a one-year increase isn’t that much—why bother? Later, gold really took off.
The people who had dismissed it before started chasing it and buying. And they bought it at much higher prices than back then, but what they were thinking was: it doesn’t just have to double, right?
The same thing, the same person—once the price changes, their appetite changes.
Now take a look at Bitcoin. A line many people repeat is: even if it rises to 160,000 now, that’s only a double. When they say that, it feels like doubling is no big deal, as if it hasn’t really risen.
But in other markets, if a stock or an index doubles, that’s something worth celebrating. So how come with Bitcoin, a double turns into, what—just “this”?
Put simply, it’s not that a double is too small. It’s that everyone’s psychological expectations were already pulled up to a higher level, and you just didn’t notice. I’m not saying Bitcoin won’t fall. With the current macro environment and geopolitical situation, no one can predict the short term.
But the real question that’s actually worth figuring out is very simple:
Would you rather buy slowly, then watch the price fall for a while? Or do you insist on waiting for that most perfect low point, only for the market to not give you the chance—and then it rallies straight up, leaving you completely sidelined?
To be honest, I think it’s the latter that most people end up truly regretting.