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🔴 Aave’s TVL has dropped by over $10B (-36%) in 48h since the Kelp incident, and uncertainty remains extremely high for users.
Most major markets are still sitting at 100% utilization, effectively preventing users from withdrawing their funds.
LlamaRisk, an Aave DAO Risk Service Provider, released an incident report outlining two potential bad debt scenarios:
▶️ Uniform loss socialization across all rsETH: the unbacked rsETH is spread across the entire supply, implying a ~15% depeg and ~$123.7M bad debt.
This bad debt is mostly absorbed by Ethereum Core ($91.8M), while smaller markets like Mantle would face higher relative shortfalls (9.5%) due to lower liquidity.
▶️ Losses isolated to L2 rsETH: Ethereum Core remains unaffected, but the impact becomes severe on L2s, implying a ~73.54% depeg and ~$230.1M bad debt.
In this scenario, Mantle is the most exposed with a 71.45% shortfall, followed by Arbitrum (26.67%) and Base (23.28%), while other chains are impacted more moderately.
The key variable now is liquidity. Until utilization normalizes, the protocol remains under stress.