#美伊二轮谈判进展 The U.S.-Iran "pause button" has been pressed, but has the alarm been lifted?

As April progresses, global markets are firmly focused on the Middle East. In the past 24 hours, dramatic and extreme tug-of-war news has emerged around the U.S.-Iran situation—Iran refused to attend negotiations, while Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire. This "fight while talking" drama continues, and as investors, what we truly need to pay attention to is how this chess game will unfold next and how your account should respond.

1. Latest developments in the U.S.-Iran situation: ceasefire extended, but the blockade remains.
The second round of U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for April 22 in Islamabad, Pakistan, was stalled due to Iran’s refusal to attend. Iran’s official news agency reported that Iran believes the U.S. is obstructing a substantive agreement, calling participation in negotiations a "waste of time." However, on the same day, U.S. President Trump announced that, at Pakistan’s request, he agreed to extend the U.S.-Iran ceasefire until Iran submits its proposal and consultations are completed. But this does not mean the situation has eased:
- Trump explicitly instructed the U.S. military to continue maritime blockade against Iran and maintain combat readiness
- Iran responded strongly: the Strait of Hormuz entrance and exit have been blocked, all navigation is under strict control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy
- Iran publicly displayed ballistic missiles in Tehran, claiming to be fully prepared for renewed conflict
- IEA chief warned: the world is facing the most severe energy crisis in history
In one sentence: the ceasefire is just a "pause button," not a "stop button."

2. New variables in the tariff battlefield: $166 billion in refunds initiated!
Meanwhile, major changes are happening across the ocean in tariff policies. On April 20, U.S. Customs officially launched the refund process—this year in February, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were overreach, requiring refunds. So far, about 56k importers have registered, involving approximately $127 billion in refunds. But don’t get too excited. Trump has announced plans to impose a new 10% tariff on imported goods under another law. More importantly, the U.S. Trade Representative has explicitly told Mexico that there will be no return to zero tariffs. For investors, this means: the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy will not disappear in the short term.

3. What market information should we focus on?
Faced with external uncertainties, many brokerages have given clear judgments:
Caitong Securities believes: "Although the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is about to end, the market remains relatively optimistic about future Middle East developments, and major global equity markets are currently relatively stable."
Zhongyuan Securities points out: "Future Middle East conflicts may still recur, but the market has gradually become desensitized, and subsequent market pricing will gradually return to its fundamental logic."
Zhongtai Securities states: "In the medium term, the A-share market does not face systemic risks of sharp decline, but the probability of a 'fast bull' is low. It is recommended to 'control positions and prioritize structure.'"
Core conclusion: The marginal impact of geopolitical factors is waning, and A-shares are returning to their own rhythm.

Based on the above information, key dimensions to monitor:
1. The "dual variables" of the U.S.-Iran situation: ceasefire extended, but maritime blockade remains. Next, pay attention to two signals:
- Will Iran submit a "unified plan"? This determines whether negotiations can restart.
- Will the U.S. military continue intercepting Iranian ships? Any accidental conflict could break the fragile ceasefire.
2. Performance divergence during the intensive Q1 report disclosure period—April is peak season for quarterly reports.
Caitong Securities reminds: "As the deadline for financial report releases approaches, the risk of underperformance may increase, and capital behavior may become more cautious."
3. The "left hand refunds, right hand tariffs" of U.S. tariff policy—$166 billion in refunds has begun, but a 10% new tariff is also being pushed simultaneously. For export-related targets, closely monitor how policy changes impact them.
4. Changes in liquidity environment
Zhongtai Securities points out: "An environment of extremely abundant liquidity is not stable." Future focus should be on central bank operations and market interest rate changes.

Currently, the market is in a stage of "external disturbance attenuation and internal logic strengthening." The U.S.-Iran situation remains the biggest uncertainty. For investors, the most important thing now is not to guess "whether there will be war tomorrow," but: does your holdings have performance support? Can your judgment framework penetrate the noise? The market won't wait for you to clear all the clues before acting. But the more chaotic it is, the more you need to stay calm.